Whether the war hysteria in two South Asian neighbors will end up in nuclear showdown seems to be a relevant question at a time India is threatening to revoke the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan taking such a step tantamount to declaration of war. That the two countries possess nuclear weapons and long range missiles in their arsenals makes war an international concern as the consequences will not only be limited to the two countries.
As the civilian leadership of Islamabad and Delhi resorts to warmongering, it is clearly pursuing antagonistically opposite goals. While Pakistan is projecting intifada in Kashmir as a ‘freedom movement’, India is regarding it as just mayhem supported by Pakistan with the help of jihadi organisations. If Islamabad wants to involve international community to resolve the Kashmir issue on humanitarian basis, New Delhi takes Kashmir as a bilateral issue. Contrary to the past, China has real stakes in South Asia as the region experiences war hysteria. Beijing’s GDP having grown at the pace of 10 percent during last two decades, China is investing a great deal in Pakistan and Central Asia on infrastructural development as a measure to connect itself with Europe through rail and road links.
Though the US has not openly opposed China’s ‘Look West’ policy, but it definitely means losing strategic influence in Eurasia. Tensions in the Middle East and mayhem in Afghanistan all signify a geopolitical upheaval fuelled by the forces that stand opposed to the revival of centuries’ old Silk Road, connecting Asia and Europe, which China seeks to revive. UK’s withdrawal from the European Union is also part of the plan to scuttle efforts to connect Eurasia.
From China’s viewpoint the South Asian tensions are unfortunate as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is on the way right now. It is because the project has been undertaken at a time trust gap between Pakistan and New Delhi is still wide enough to let matters pass quietly. India has neither been consulted nor invited to participate in such a strategically important project.
India’s frustration over CPEC resembles the one it experienced at the time of the launching of the War on Terror. The then BJP government, after failing to convince the Bush administration that Pakistan should be bombed first for the reason that it was the “epicenter of terrorism” before dislodging the Taliban regime, had launched its silent war to make the frontline state weak and fragile. Using the pretext of attack on its parliament, it amassed troops on Pakistan’s borders for a year diverting the neighbours’ attention, and providing enough opportunity to the Taliban/al-Qaeda outfits to reassemble and consolidate their position in FATA. Playing up the Indo-Pak tensions in 2003 elections, the MMA, an alliance of religious parties, won the slot of the opposition leader in the National Assembly, and formed government in the then NWFP, other than securing mayorship of the port city, Karachi.
Undoubtedly, Pakistan suffered a great deal due to India’s opposition to its status of the frontline state in the US-led War on Terror. Although Islamabad came in the open to claim that India was supporting militants to carry out acts of terror on its soil at the time of launching the National Action Plan (NAP) in 2014, it seems quite clear that the strategy was in operation since Pakistan was declared by the US as the frontline state in the War on Terror.
The BJP is drumming up war and threatening to revoke the Indus Water Treaty apparently to vent its frustration over CPEC. It would get nothing out of its bad rhetoric against Pakistan other than emboldening the right-wing groups and, consequently, heightening communal tensions.
New Delhi’s warmongering is also a disservice to the democratic existence of Pakistan. The ruling parties of the country, which have wasted national wealth through fiscal mismanagement and corruption, have found an opportunity to deflect public pressure for strict accountability. The feudal lobby, wearied of the inflow of tomatoes and potatoes from the eastern border, has made even the PTI rally behind the Pakistan government as the Modi government issues a warning to revoke the Indus Waters Treaty.
Pakistan-India tensions have killed the prospects of holding the SAARC summit in Islamabad. It is certainly a step backward in efforts to promote regional cooperation vis-a-vis terrorism and trade, something that the US is wooing India for. The region seething in war hysteria signifies a setback to US diplomacy in the region. The Modi government has unwittingly put India’s newfound ally in an awkward situation, something like the US confronts in the Middle East.
It would be certainly unfortunate and would benefit neither India nor any other country of South Asia if the atmosphere of hostility prevails for a long time. Political parties in Pakistan — the PPP being in the lead — that had started fanning anti-India sentiments during campaigns of the Azad Jammu Kashmir polls, would try to take the war rhetoric up to the general elections for domestic reasons even if the Modi government tones down the rhetoric of animosity with Pakistan. Chances of an all-out war being minimal and insignificant, the war hysteria would only serve petty political interests of the ruling parties on both sides of the divide.
The sorry state of affairs — whereby Pakistan and India have severed ties and the SAARC summit has been postponed — speaks loud of the narrow-mindedness of the leadership. Political parties grab votes by promoting fear and anarchy, not by upholding a promising agenda of socioeconomic development. Even democracy has not urged them to come closer for a greater cause. In India it is the BJP. In Pakistan almost every party that has ever had a chance to rule Pakistan as a whole or in part is there to point scores on border tensions. They chant war slogans without realising the dangers it involves for the people whom they represent.
The writer is Director at the Center for Policy and Media Studies