In freezing weather, politics is melting Great Britain. Will Great Britain shrink just to Wales and England? The Scottish Government has proposed holding a second referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom (UK). A referendum on Scottish independence was held in 2014, with 55 per cent voting against the proposal. Subsequent to this, the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU) in the 2016 referendum. One of the reasons cited by those opposed to Scottish independence during the 2014 campaign was that it would endanger Scotland being part of the EU. The SNP-majority Scottish Government stated in its 2013 white paper on independence that the 2014 referendum would be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to follow a different path and choose a new and better direction for the nation. Following the election of a Conservative UK government in 2015, a referendum on the UK membership of the EU was scheduled for June 2016. The SNP stated in its manifesto for the May 2016 Scottish Parliament election that a second independence referendum would be held if there was a material change of circumstances, such as the UK leaving the EU. The SNP formed a minority government in 2016 with the Scottish Parliament having a pro-independence majority with the Scottish Greens. The “leave” side won the EU referendum with 52 per cent of the votes across the UK. In Scotland, 62 per cent of votes were to “remain” in the EU, with a majority of voters in every local authority area voting “remain.” In March 2017, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the SNP, requested a Section 30 order to enable a second independence referendum, when the shape of the UK’s Brexit deal became clear, within 18–24 months, with the approval of the Scottish Parliament. Earlier in the same month, the then UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, stated,”Now is not the time” to discuss another referendum, because the focus should be on “working together, not pulling apart” for Brexit negotiations. The Brexit process also met a ten-month delay due to a lack of ratifications of the exit deal by the House of Commons. In December 2019, Sturgeon sent an official request to hold an independence referendum to May’s replacement as prime minister, Boris Johnson. Sturgeon advocated holding a referendum in 2020 and published a document proposing amendments to the Scotland Act 1998, including to give the Scottish parliament permanent powers to hold referendums. The referendum on Scottish independence held on September 18, 2014, saw Scotland vote to remain part of the UK, with 55 per cent voting against the proposal for Scotland to become an independent country and 45 per cent voting in favour. Uncertainty over Scotland’s European Union (EU) membership was a topic in the run-up to the referendum vote. The British government and some mainstream political parties argued that remaining in the UK was the only way for Scotland to remain part of the EU. The SNP formed a minority government in 2016 with the Scottish Parliament having a pro-independence majority with the Scottish Greens. The “leave” side won the EU referendum with 52 per cent of the votes across the UK. In Scotland, 62 per cent of votes were to “remain” in the EU, with a majority of voters in every local authority area voting “remain.” Other issues, such as the economy, played a large part in the debate. Financial groups, such as the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, were reported to be considering moving their registered offices to London, as a result of European law stating that banks should have their head offices in the same member state as its registered office, as well as implying that these offices should be in the location where they conduct most of their activity which would be the remainder of the United Kingdom in the event of Scottish independence. The Scottish Government’s official publication on the independence referendum stated that “It is the view of the current Scottish Government that a referendum is a once-in-a-generation opportunity,” a point reiterated a few days before the vote by the SNP’s then-leader, Alex Salmond. This noted the 18-year gap between the devolution referenda held in 1979 and 1997 as an example of the generational opportunity. Three months later, Salmond reversed the position, highlighting the UK’s EU referendum as a factor. The UK government had also portrayed the independence referendum as once-in-a-generation opportunity. Though the proposal for Scotland to become an independent country was voted down in 2014, the referendum resulted in the Scottish Parliament gaining additional powers through the Scotland Act 2016, which increased the devolved powers in areas such as taxation and some aspects of welfare provision. The 2015 UK general election was held on 7 May almost eight months after the independence referendum was held. In their manifesto, the SNP said in response to the Conservatives manifesto pledge promising a referendum on EU membership by the end of 2017 if elected. The European Union is far from perfect. However, it is overwhelmingly believed to be in Scotland’s interests for the nation to remain a member, engaging with the institutions as fully as it can, and to argue for reform from within. The people will oppose UK withdrawal from the EU and propose that, in any future referendum, there should be a double majority requirement. Each of the four constituent nations of the UK would have to vote for withdrawal before the UK as a whole could leave the European Union. The SNP went on to win 56 of the 59 Scottish seats that were contested in an unprecedented landslide winning 50 per cent of the national vote and left just three unionist MPs in Scotland; Labour saw their worst result in Scotland since 1918, the Liberal Democrats fell to their lowest level since 1970 and the Conservatives received their lowest vote share in Scotland since 1865. Across the United Kingdom, the Conservatives led by David Cameron won an unexpected overall majority, their first since 1992 and following their victory passed the European Union Referendum Act 2015 which legislated for the holding of a national UK-wide referendum on EU membership which would be held following the conclusion of a renegotiation of the UK’s membership to the EU. The elections to the Scottish Parliament took place on May 5, 2016, seven weeks before the holding of the EU Referendum. Now, the Scottish independence debate will dominate the UK post-election political scene along with Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon has predicted that 2020 will be a historic year as she promised to secure a second referendum on Scottish independence. She said that her government would work to ensure it took place. She also highlighted the UN climate change summit set to take place in Glasgow in November as evidence that the eyes of the world would be on Scotland throughout the year. But in a sign that the constitutional debate will dominate 2020 in the same way it did in 2019, the UK Government used its New Year message to dismiss the idea of a “neverendum.” Alister Jack accused the SNP of wanting a Scottish independence “neverendum.” Jack said the nation must “put the rancour and division behind us,” and look instead to a future outside the EU, with the UK set to officially leave at the end of January. Lady Sturgeon sent a letter; requesting the powers to hold indyref-2 to Boris Johnson before Christmas, with the prime minister expected to reject the approach in the New Year. The First Minister has ruled out holding an advisory referendum on Scottish independence and her response to the stalemate is unclear, with legal action against UK ministers one possibility. In her New Year’s message, the SNP leader said the Glasgow climate change summit would put Scotland “at the centre of international attention” with more than thirty thousand people expected to attend. The Glasgow Summit comes near the end of what will be a historic year. Against the wishes of most people in Scotland, the Scottish will leave the European Union at the end of January. That will, I know, be a source of deep regret for many. In the year ahead, the Scottish Government will do everything it can to mitigate the worst impacts of Brexit. Scottish will work to ensure that they have the chance to determine their own future by deciding whether they wish to become an independent country. By contrast, Mr Jack was proud to be Scottish Secretary as the UK left the EU, hailing a whole new chapter in the country’s history that would help farmers, fishermen and businesses. The Conservative was one of the 38 per cent of Scots who voted to Leave at the 2016 referendum, which helped him earn a seat around Mr Johnson’s Cabinet table. As Scots begin this new chapter together, the representative will put the Union at the very heart of everything Scots do and work hard to make sure Scotland has a prosperous future. The year 2020 must be about optimism, growth and opportunity, not further division and “neverendum.” Scots are stronger and more prosperous as a union of nations. Most of the Scots put the rancour and division behind them and look forward to a better future together. The previous year had made clear why Scotland needed independence highlighting its landslide victory at a recent general election. The case for independence has ever been clear. No wonder people across Scotland many of whom not natural independence supporters are now rethinking. The writer is based in Islamabad. He is a book ambassador, columnist, political analyst and the author of several books. He can be reached at naveedamankhan@hotmail.com