The Afghan peace process is currently fractured by lack of equilibrium among key stakeholders. Although we are witnessing that the peace negotiation is continuing in a direct and simple manner on electronic and print media, nonetheless, a complex indirect mechanism is at play between different competing actors for sustainability of peace process. A tenable peace requires a balance among the regional actors which at present seems difficult to achieve due to conflicting objectives and goals.
In this back drop, a delegation of Afghan Taliban visited Islamabad in the first week of October to deliberate on ways to remove the impending hurdles to resume the peace talks between the concerned parties. The US top negotiator, Zalmay Khalilzad, also met the Taliban delegation for revival of peace talks. Earlier the negotiations broke down on account of killing of Sgt. Elis Ortiz who fell victim to a suicide attack in which a military vehicle was targeted. Apparently, both sides claimed that they were on the verge of inking a peace deal when a suicide attacker, awaiting a target in the heart of Kabul, struck a special operation team trapped in the disorderly city traffic causing twelve fatalities including ten civilians, an American soldier and a Romanian corporal. After the incident, the US President denounced the attack and called off the talks stating that he was about to invite the Taliban representatives and President Ashraf Ghani at Camp David to announce the deal. Reportedly Taliban agreed to the idea on the condition that the peace deal should be announced prior to their visit to Washington. This completely maps the ground situation whereby Taliban controls a considerable portion of land mass of Afghanistan. Meanwhile, a number of interesting developments has taken place in the region.
First, the American criticism directed at Taliban for their incessant attacks on Afghan forces and other critical targets has been responded to by the latter with a nearly peaceful election in the country. This clearly suggests that Taliban have acquiesced to the United States’ request and intentionally reduced the violence in the country. Second, an Afghan foreign office spokesperson was removed from his position who tried to give critical remarks about Taliban during their visit to Islamabad. This obviously suggests that Kabul is also sensitized on the peace process and has shown a positive attitude towards it especially in support of Taliban. Third, a raid was conducted on September 22, 2019 in Musa Qala (Helmand) in which five Al Qaeda related affiliates were killed including Mulla Asim Omar, head of Al Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), along with a courier of Al Zawahiri. These details have been disclosed by National Directorate of Security (NDS) who also shared information about arrest of five or six Al Qaeda affiliates who are believed to be of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin. The Taliban claimed that a marriage congregation was targeted in a coordinated operation in which scores of civilian causalities also took place. If the death of AQIS chief is confirmed then it is a major development for Delhi, Dhaka, Kabul and Islamabad.
First, the American criticism directed at Taliban for their incessant attacks on Afghan forces and other critical targets has been responded to by the latter with a nearly peaceful election in the country
Prior to it, the US president confirmed death of Hamza Bin Laden, a son of OBL. The intelligence agencies are connecting all the tactical Al Qaeda dots to trace out the arc of its ideology. We might see intensification of effort in search of Ayman al-Zawahiri before America finally announces that it has destroyed the military and ideological leadership of Al Qaeda and is now drawing down in Afghanistan thus ending eighteen years long war on a high note. The strategic withdrawal plans of American forces in Afghanistan therefore hinges upon targeting Al Qaeda leadership in the area.
A likely close contest may be seen on the eve of announcement of preliminary election results. A re-polling possibility is also on the cards. Any election complication may further aggravate the already muddled situation making it difficult to reach at a decisive settlement. If Pakistan uses its influence and forces Taliban to sit with Afghan government even then chances of finding a lasting settlement are quite minimal. Looking at the recent history of US withdrawal from conflict zones like Iraq and Syria, the US may finish its Afghanistan engagement successfully but a sustainable peace in the region is not foreseeable in near future.
With the recent setback suffered by ISIS in Syria, a high to medium level conflict can continue after the US withdrawal unless it creates a mechanism through which it controls Taliban on one hand and regulates anti-Taliban forces on the other. The framework of this equilibrium requires guarantees from multiple actors to avoid perpetuation of high pitched conflict and maintenance of tranquility and peace in the area. Only such a complex parity can save Afghanistan from a deadly embrace of violence.
The writer is a senior police officer and manager. He has done his MPA in International Security Policy (ISP) from Columbia University, NY