BJP and Shiv Sena parted ways after winning in Maharashtra. The break came after 35 years of alliance once power sharing formula could not be agreed upon. In 2014 both contested elections separately but came on the same platform to form a government. This year, they contested together, later parting ways unable to constitute a government. The elections were between Congress-Nationalist Congress Party and Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena. The breakup of votes were: Independents: 13, Shiv Sena: 56, BJP: 105, Congress: 44, Nationalist Congress Party: 54 and Other Parties won 16 seats. BJP and Shiv Sena crossed majority seats need. They won together more than 160 seats whereas the need was 145 seats to form the government.
From the day of elections, Shiv Sena leaders spoke of having a 50:50 divide with BJP. They were not willing to have a lesser slice of the pie. The reason was clear. Even with BJP, Independents and Other Parties combined, BJP did not reach the needed 145 mark. Technically, no single party can form a government on its own. By this formula of 50:50 Chief Minister Post was to be with the BJP for 2.5 years and with Shiv Sena for 2.5 years. Shiv Sena apparently wanted a written assurance to this effect. BJP refused the musical chair deal.
Congress-Nationalist Congress Party with its 54 seats could have joined hands with BJP. An unlikely alliance, but politics has strange bedfellows. Congress and BJP could have been another team. But this did not happen.
BJP though has garnered local mass support has a poor record of maintaining relationship with her allies. In 2013, a 17 year old alliance was snapped by Nitish Kumar’s Janta Dal (United) (JD(U)), rejoining NDA in 2017. Before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, smaller parties had walked out of the alliance. This included Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party in Bihar and Om Prakash Rajbhar-led Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party in UP. In 2018, BJP disassociated from Jammu and Kashmir’s PDP. Whereas in 2018 Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatan left the alliance as well.
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) reportedly advised Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis to stay away from government formation and focus instead on making efforts to serve the people of Maharashtra from the Opposition benches.
President’s Rule was imposed by President Ram Nath Kovind following a recommendation by Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari. ‘In his report to the President, Mr. Koshyari said a situation had arisen in which it was impossible to constitute or form a stable government in the State, and the government could not be carried on in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution.’ (The Hindu November 12, 2019)
No accusation of unfairness or horse trading featured in the report.
Bal Keshev Thakraya cartoonist for an English daily started the Shiv Sena (Translated it means: The Army of Shivaji) in 1966that emerged as a Hindu national organization having a regional Marathi plank. Later his son Uddhav Thakray headed the party. However, since the death of his father, the relationship with Shiv Sena under Uddhav were never the same.
What is fearful is the larger vision for India drenched in Hindutva mindset as envisaged by the current political dispensation. Article 44 of the Directive Principles in the Constitution says the “State shall endeavour to provide for its citizens a uniform civil code (UCC) throughout the territory of India.”
With this break up- is there a change in the political fabric of Maharashtra to seem that the fabric is coming off the seams?
An interesting aspect here is- the mantle of Hinduva has been taken over by the BJP. The ideological weakness came after Bal Thakray died and Shev Sena did not have a leader of the level of Modi to appeal to the extremist Hindu mindset. Both BJP and Shev Sena support Hindu Nationalist base but Shiv Sena has a strong support in the Hindu Marathi community of Maharashtra. This is the second biggest estate in terms of population of India with reportedly 112,372,972, with the official language being Marathi. 79.8% of the population practices Hinduism. Most of those living are Marathis.
The impact of the breakup of the alliance in light of the brief demographic facts of Maharashtra offers an interesting strong future divide. It will undoubtedly lead to division within the Marathis of the state. Shiv Sena will have to pull away from the Hindutva springboard and rely more heavily on the Marathi base. The belt of Thane-Konkan has been a strong base for Shiv Sena. Interestingly the issues here are more linguistic than religious. The party by leaning heavily on the Marathi base may be able to lure in its fold the Dalit Buddhists and many other followers of different religions that may not be Hindus but Marathis and/or living in Maharashtra.
What is fearful is the larger vision for India drenched in Hindutva mindset as envisaged by the current political dispensation. Article 44 of the Directive Principles in the Constitution says the “State shall endeavor to provide for its citizens a uniform civil code (UCC) throughout the territory of India.” This will repulse the minorities denying them to live their lives as per their religious laws and culture. Will the world sit and watch as they watch the abrogation of Article 370 and its aftermath?
The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: [email protected] and tweets at @yasmeen_9