WASHINGTON: What would the Americans do on November 8 is anybody’s guess. Would they elect someone who allegedly jeopardised the national security and received billions of dollars from foreign countries in the name of charity or would they elect someone who allegedly groped women and had business ties with key aides of Vladimir Putin?
In a latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton and Republic candidate Donald Trump are neck and neck, with just six days left to the polls.
The poll found Clinton backers slipping behind in enthusiasm even as the Democrat has an edge in early voting. The campaign manager of Trump capitalized on recent FBI announcements to portray the Democratic candidate as a bad choice to commander-in-chief of the United States.
Currently, 53 to 43 percent, more Trump supporters say they are very enthusiastic about him. Both candidates lacked voter enthusiasm through the fall campaign and continued to lag excitement.
Over 1 in 5 likely voters identified in the Post-ABC poll report having already voted (21 percent), while about one-quarter say they plan to vote early or by mail (24 percent,) and a slight majority plan to vote in person on Election Day.
The level of early voting so far is roughly in line with expectations, given the 24.7 million early votes tracked so far by the United States Election Project, which amounts to 19 percent of the 129 million ballots cast in 2012.
Clinton has a modest 54-41 percent edge among early voters in an average of the three most recent tracking poll waves, while Trump leads by a 50-39 percent margin among those looking to vote on Election Day.
Older Americans have flocked to vote early, with 38 percent of senior likely voters saying they have done so, compared with 18 percent of those ages 40 to 64 and 17 percent of voters younger than that.
This poll was conducted by telephone among a random national sample of 1,773 adults including landline and mobile phone respondents. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 points.
The Florida Factor: The state of Florida has once again got unmatchable prominence for both candidates. For Trump winning Florida is a necessity, not a luxury. Florida goes from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up”. Polling in Florida has tightened over the past week. A New York Times/Siena poll shows Trump is ahead by four points.
If Clinton wins the 18 states (plus DC) that every Democratic presidential nominee has carried between 1992 and 2012, she would have 242 electoral votes. If she wins Florida’s 29 votes too, then her total would be 271 and the election is over. If Trump wins Florida, it would mean a viable pathway to victory exists.
Barack Obama narrowly won Florida, in 2012. Indicators suggest that many low-frequency voters, particularly Latinos, will participate in this year’s election. And if they do Ms Clinton will have better chances to win the most important state.
Called as Sunshine State, Florida played decisive role in the victory of George W Bush, in 2000, against Democratic candidate Al Gore.
Trump, who has been relatively strong in Florida all year, needs the state’s 29 electoral votes in any realistic scenario that gets him to 270 electorate votes, necessary to become the president.
Meanwhile, the fans of both Trump and Clinton continue to use the social media sphere rather extensively to register their opinions.
“I’m getting ready to go to the polls to vote. What is Trump going to replace Obamacare with? I am excited he is gonna repeal it, just need to know what the “REPLACE” is? Hurry, going to vote,” wrote one Delbert Shnizzle.
“If they are truly people of integrity, Democrats will dropkick Hillary like a hot football – the same way Republicans gave Nixon the boot in 1974,” posted someone called NobHIlls
Another enthusiast named Vinootz wrote: “I am voting for Trump so we can say **** *** to the politicians. Liberals give me nausea. Simpletons of the Republican Party I can digest because they believe in the Constitution. Time to vote Libertarian or Constitutionalist.”