The desperate humanitarian toll due to the renewed Syrian regime offensive in Idlib is mounting by the day. Meanwhile, it will take much more than tweets of condemnation from the EU and the US to stop a growingly confident Bashar al-Assad, and his Russian and Iranian backers, from retaking the key province at all costs.
As displayed in Aleppo, Ghouta and Deraa, Assad and his allies have shown that they will stop at nothing to win. They have brutally employed a wide range of arsenal from chemical weapons, starvation, blockade, barrel bombs and scorched earth tactics.
All the while, Western powers have largely failed to take a consistent and united approach to civil war now in its ninth year, let alone take firm steps.
With Idlib firmly in the sight of Assad, now is the time for tough choices, and for the West to take bold and swift actions. Sitting on the fence is an indirect thumb up to Damascus and Moscow to continue their deadly operations.
Either the Western powers move beyond mere words and take a firm stance to stop the Idlib offensive, which includes reports of alleged new chemical use, or they strike an unprecedented deal with Russia that gives renewed political recognition to Assad and staves off a new humanitarian catastrophe and the certain destruction of the city.
The alternative, in doing nothing, is that Assad will, one way or another, take back Idlib, whatever the cost. That cost is likely the slaughter of thousands more, millions more displaced, and large-scale devastation.
In that scenario, as Assad eventually reclaims Idlib and other opposition territories through force, what little Western bargaining position remains on the future framework of Syria, would evaporate.
Ominously for Idlib, Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the topic of a full-scale assault, recently stated, “I don’t rule it out, but right now we and our Syrian friends consider that to be inadvisable given this humanitarian element.”
There have been thousands dead in recent weeks, thousands more displaced and dozens of hospitals and civilian infrastructure destroyed. Ironically, that is with Moscow keeping the “humanitarian element” in mind. What will be of Idlib and civilian tragedy if Russia and Assad ignore the humanitarian picture?
According to James Jeffrey, the US envoy for Syria, the Trump administration has found “overwhelming international support for an immediate cease-fire in Idlib, and this international support is only growing.”
At the end of the day, Turkey alone is powerless to prevent Assad and Moscow
However, as the last several years have proved, the UN is effectively paralysed over Syria and words and tweets count for little in discouraging Assad and Putin.
Moscow quickly rejected a tweet from the US president, Donald Trump; demanding Russia and Syria “stop bombing the hell out of Idlib” and “indiscriminately killing innocent civilians”.
In this crucial phase of the Syrian war, the importance of Idlib cannot be underestimated. It borders with Turkey and links the key highways to major cities under regime control, including Aleppo, Hama and Latakia.
These roads open up vital new channels for the regime in terms of much-needed commerce and logistics.
It is, of course, also the last bastion of the opposition forces and resistance against Assad. The population of the province rose from 1.5 million to almost four million, as it became the centre for thousands of displaced civilians and rebels from formerly held opposition areas.
The same people that fled the likes of Ghouta and Deraa under fierce blockade and bombardment to seek relative sanctuary in Idlib are now facing a new round of atrocities.
Idlib remains vital to Turkey, who has several observation posts, along the de facto border with regime forces as a part of the 2018 “demilitarisation zones” agreement with Russia and Iran.
Ankara thought it had a good understanding with Moscow over the plight of Idlib, but this is unravelling fast as the regime and Russian bombardment has intensified.
The demilitarisation agreement may seem like a shrewd peace deal on the surface and a way to stave off more bloodshed. In reality, it was always a veil for Assad and his backers to delay, regroup, and plan their inevitable military adventure on the remaining opposition-held areas.
The hardline Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has a significant foothold in Idlib, and Ankara was always going to struggle to persuade mainstreams rebels to give up heavy weaponry, let alone get Jihadists to leave the planned buffer zone.
In turn, HTS was always going to be the recurring pretext for Assad and Russia to wage new military adventures.
As the battle threatens to gather speed, so does the conundrum for Turkey. To stave off the assault, it has tried to unite various rebel factions and bolstered their defences. Nevertheless, the more that Turkey reinforces rebel ranks, the more that diplomatic relations with Moscow and chances of a peaceful resolution to the war disappear.
The assault on Idlib threatens to send millions of more refugees to Turkey, but it will also put Turkish spheres of influences in Afrin and al-Bab at risk. Turkey could easily become more directly embroiled in a war that it can ill-afford with plenty of domestic headaches already to contend.
At the end of the day, Turkey alone is powerless to prevent Assad and Moscow. It may have to make difficult choices of its own to retain its spheres of influences, and ultimately its main quest of keeping the Syrian Kurds in check.
Only a united response of the West can stop the transfer of Idlib and the rest of opposition territories to Assad, and with their track record over the past several years and little appetite for direct intervention, that response is unlikely to go beyond more tweets of condemnation.
The writer is a freelancer