Narendra Modi has taken a political gamble by taking steps to repeal Articles 370 and 35A, changing the status of Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). The move began with a Presidential Order, followed by its passage through both houses of the Indian Parliament, withdrawing the historic special status to Jammu and Kashmir. IOK has been bifurcated with Ladakh becoming a Union Territory (UT) and Jammu and Kashmir also being given the UT status, all in one stroke.
The extreme steps were adopted while several elected representatives in the state were placed under house arrest, curfew was clamped, and mobile and Internet services were cut off. A surge of troops is going to cause congestion but also increase the chances of wreaking havoc on the hapless Kashmiris when they come out in protest. The disruptive move was not preceded by any consultations with any political or civil society members. Nor was there any warning to the public about the most momentous tectonic shift India has ever seen in domestic policy on Kashmir.
Indian media falsely tried to imply that the US had been briefed regarding Indian actions regarding Kashmir, but the US State Department has vehemently denied such false notions and expressed dismay at the extreme Indian action in Kashmir.
New York Times in its editorial titled ‘India Tempts Fate in Kashmir, ‘The Most Dangerous Place in the World’ opines that “There is still a good chance that the changes to the Constitution will end up before India’s Supreme Court. But the fires are already lit. The United States and China must not allow Kashmir to become a pawn in their ongoing disputes; on the contrary, the United States, China, the United Nations and other powers with influence over India and Pakistan must urgently do what they can to prevent India’s folly from escalating into a perilous and unpredictable regional crisis.”
There may be serious ramifications to this conspiracy. At the moment the Valley is quiet because of the curfew and incarceration of its leaders. Directly the curfew is lifted, Kashmiris will take to the streets to protest and the genie will be out of the bottle. International opinion aside from China, Malaysia and Turkey has been guarded. Chinese reaction has been the harshest, condemning the Indian action as an attack on Chinese sovereignty because of declaring Ladakh as a part of Union Territory.
While non-Muslims will be resettled to change IOK’s demography, India may use the opportunity to push protesting Kashmiris closer to the Line of Control and force Pakistan to accept huge numbers as refugees, straining the already fragile Pakistani economy. Modi has called dibs on Jammu Kashmir, Gilgit and Baltistan. It has also promised liberation to Baluchistan.
If India attempts any adventurism in Azad Jammu Kashmir or Gilgit Baltistan, it will be met by brute force. Both Pakistan and India are nuclear weapons equipped and the outcome will be deadly for the entire region. Nuclear fallout may envelop the whole world.
Without consulting the Kashmiris since there is no Legislative Assembly, the Indian President cannot sign the Bill for the abrogation of the Constitutional provisions. The Indian Congress, Kashmiri leaders and numerous other Indian opinion builders with a conscience are crying hoarse in condemning the action taken by the Indian government
India has also displayed utter disregard to the United Nations in a flagrant violation of its Resolutions on Kashmir. A territory declared disputed by the august body of the UN Security Council has been blatantly annexed and occupied by India. Pakistan’s reactions have so far been pragmatic, downgrading diplomatic ties, suspending trade ties and revising bilateral arrangements. Pakistan has also decided to take the matter up with the UN Security Council and pursue it diplomatically. This Independence Day will be observed as Kashmir Solidarity Day while Indian Independence Day has been marked as a Black Day.
The original author of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru, in his broadcast to the nation over All India Radio on 3rd November 1947, said, “We have declared that the fate of Kashmir is ultimately to be decided by the people. That pledge we have given not only to the people of Kashmir and to the world. We will not and cannot back out of it.”
Nehru later reneged on his solemn promise, resultantly Pakistan and India indulged in armed conflicts, but the fate of the Kashmiris did not change.
Without consulting the Kashmiris since there is no Legislative Assembly, the Indian President cannot sign the Bill for the abrogation of the Constitutional provisions. The Indian Congress, Kashmiri leaders and numerous other Indian opinion builders with a conscience are crying hoarse in condemning the action taken by the Indian government. The people of IOK must be reassured that this is not the requiem for their land of birth. Pakistan will stand by them in this hour of need, diplomatically and morally. Modi is playing with fire as he has miscalculated Pakistan’s reaction. The people and the armed forces of Pakistan are united in their resolve to go to any end to get the Kashmiris their rights promised by the UN.
The writer is a retired Group Captain of PAF. He is a columnist