In the recent past, droughts, storms, floods, intense weather patterns coupled with their destabilizing effects have displayed tremendous potential to overwhelm the disaster-response and devastate management capabilities of government and the state. The distinctiveness of climate change has now transformed rather completely evolved from a mere environmental issue to a very serious security challenge. For Pakistan, which is already confronted with multiple security and development challenges, climate change adds a new hostile factor which has far more serious consequences than commonly discussed traditional threats.
Climate change has made the security matrix of the country complex, challenging and precarious. It has not only dented our fragile economy time and again but at times has also put our national security plans at risk. We have witnessed events like recurring floods which besides destroying the land productivity also disrupt strategic communications across the country. For Pakistan climate change has rightly earned its prominence as a Menace non traditionally, a non-traditional development as well as a security menace.
Water scarcity is increasing every single day and weather patterns are becoming unprecedented. Glaciers, one of the major water resource in Pakistan are bleeding, drifting, gushing and depicting uncharacteristic behavior. Winters are witnessing tremendous and repeated snow fall while summers even in high altitude places like Gilgit-Baltistan are getting equally hot as experienced thousands of feet below in the plains of Punjab. Rapid population growth, urbanization, aggressive construction, environmental degradation and glacial melting resulting in Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOFs) have clearly shown their destructive effectsin recent years. GLOFs happen when glacier ice is unable to hold resulting in the sudden release of water. This melting and expansion of glaciers has become a serious threat particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan region which homes few of the world’s longest glaciers.
Sea level along coastal belt of Pakistan is already suggested by experts to be rising badly eroding coastal regions and gradually inundating deltaic plains. Land along the coast is becoming salinized and habitation is gradually being lost
The physical vulnerability studies conducted in recent past suggest that more than 80% of built-up areas along river sides including agricultural lands, hydro-power infrastructures, strategic roads and important bridges remain highly vulnerable to GLOF therefore exposed to high risk since glaciersin northern part of country are in surging phase. These surges and drifts are reportedly due to high temperatures.
Expert reports suggest that due to warm temperatures, Himalayan and Karakorum glaciers are retreating gradually at the rate of 4 to 5 meters in a single year thus increasing flow in the Indus River System. This rate is likely to increase further threatening food and livelihood security of the Indus Basin Irrigation dependents. Recently, Shishper glacier located south of Batura glacier in Hunza district in Gilgit-Baltistan started to stretch considerably towards the south-west direction threatening an entire village. In the month of July 2018 this rapid expansion was observed due to which flow of glacial stream curving through Hassan Abad (a village in Hunza valley) got blocked. Fortunately a year later i.e. recently in June 2019 the glacier away and the temporary lake formed behind the glacier found drainage from underneath the ice flooding the Hassanabad stream and damaging the Karakorum Highway in Hassan Abad. Few weeks later about few miles from Hassan Abad, glacial water from Ultar glacier triggered frightening floods disrupting water channels in Hunza creating a water scarcity situation. These days the valley is experiencing water scarcity that too during peak-tourist season, not to mention that fruit orchards, grass slopes and fields could not be irrigated as restoration of these channels is still underway.
As the temperatures would continue to rise, rainfall would also increase stimulating diarrheal, viral and many vector borne diseases. Sea level along coastal belt of Pakistan is already suggested by experts to be rising badly eroding coastal regions and gradually inundating deltaic plains. Land along the coast is becoming salinized and habitation is gradually being lost.
Effects of climate change are not specific to Pakistan only but are being observed around the globe while efforts are being made to mitigate the adverse effects. Thus climate change is inevitable but for Pakistan which is ranked high on climate risk index, it becomes a potential Threat Multiplier. Confronted with a hostile neighbour sitting on flood gates and ever ready to exploit our internal vulnerabilities, climate change becomes a serious exploitable threat to Pakistan’s national security. These environmental and ecological issues become more pronounced due to inadequate and limited capacity of the state and society to cope with these. Pakistan’s military comprehends the security threat associated with climate change being the only potent response multiplier in such scenarios. Cutting of lines of communication, isolation of strategic areas, destruction of key bridges and blockades of important passes are frequent cases for military formations particularly those deployed in the north. Pakistan’s Military does realize climate change as a threat multiplier thus tries to augment the capacity of government to alleviate and mitigate its negative impacts. However, despite a number of coordinating bodies at federal and provincial level, military remains alone in responding to such scenarios in the field.
An all-encompassing collective effort is required to understand, adapt and mitigate threat posed by climate change particularly the threat it poses to national security. Equal sharing of responsibilities by state, society and international community is the exact requirement at present. Since, environment and climate change are inseparably connected to sustainable development, thus Non-Government Organization and local communities should also play their role and shoulder their share of responsibility. Government also needs to understand that state alone with its meagre resources cannot handle these threats and needs synergetic effort assisted by Non-Government and Community Support Organizations. Government and state functionaries need to realize that these climatic hazards cannot be mitigated by individual efforts and resources which if attempted would result in environmental stress; exploitable by hostile forces to generate negative societal consequences. Thus potential of Non-Government and Community Support Organizations should be used instead of reducing their role on grounds due mere suspicion and other regulatory compliance issues. Pakistan at presents seriously needs this solidarity based upon partnerships at national and international levels.
The writer is a versatile analyst and a speaker on contemporary issues