The advent of modern technology has opened doors for multiple avenues of progress to mankind. Advances in technological domains, such as the internet or the mobile phone, present a great deal of potential to further the cause of advancement. However, the rapid pace of technological developments also poses many challenges for individuals in terms of security. This becomes even more evident at the state level. As important constructs of the modern state, including energy and communication infrastructure, become more digitized, the threats in the cyber domain become more and more dangerous for states.
Pakistan has also had to face a multitude of threats in the cyber domain. These threats have manifested themselves in the shape of website hackings, false news and disinformation. Such threats have relied on the use of cyber threats in order to achieve their goals of harming Pakistani political or economic cohesion.
Recently, a think tank in Washington published a report in which it tackled a key issue. The report has described a “Grey Zone,” falling within the threshold of statecraft and below the dangerous levels of open warfare.
Grey Zone threats rely on the utilisation of indirect and non-military means in order to target specific areas of economic or political domains of the adversary.
The report has maintained focus on the US and the various threats that it faces in the domain of Grey Zones. The report also states that due to the ambiguous nature of these actions, it is difficult to commit a military force against these threats due to the fear of a disproportionate response. Also, Grey Zone threats have a feature of plausible deniability and anonymity, which means that there is a great deal of hindrance in identifying the origin and nature of the threat. Such features make it difficult to perceive the intensity of the threat, as compared to a military threat.
This analogy is also applicable in the case of Pakistan. Grey Zone threats rely on the use of political and economic coercion along with other operations such as cyber-based operations, propaganda, information and psychological operations as well as disinformation. This is especially true if we observe the state of recent Indian aggression against Pakistan.
In terms of political and economic coercion, India has relied on a mixture of overtly aggressive policies towards Pakistan. This is evident from the fact that India decided to completely block trade with Pakistan over the issue of terrorist attacks. Similarly, India has also declined to attend any political dialogue or international events hosted in Pakistan. In fact, this has had a spillover effect for India, where it has declined to even host Pakistani sports teams. Economically, India has declined to enter into bilateral or multilateral economic or energy-based projects with Pakistan.
In other domains, India has also resorted to proxy warfare, a key feature of Grey Zone threats. India has supported terrorist groups that are operating within Balochistan, case in point being the arrest of Commander Kulbhushan Yadav. He was a serving Indian Navy officer who was attached to the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). Also, India has employed the use of various cyber-attacks against Pakistan. These attacks have manifested themselves in the shape of attacks on various Pakistani government websites. In the realm of propaganda and disinformation, India has maintained a brazen approach to defame the Pakistani military without the provision of credible and factual evidence. Similarly, India has also invested in a massive disinformation campaign to build a false image of Balochistan and portray terrorist elements as fighters for a legitimate cause. This tactic of disinformation was also visible during the recently held World Cup match between Pakistan and Afghanistan, where a small aeroplane carrying the banner, titled, “Justice for Balochistan,” flew over the stadium.
By providing timely evidence, Pakistan can counteract the Indian campaign of propaganda and disinformation
Perhaps, the most obvious indication of India’s culmination of Grey Zone threats was during the Pulwama attack and the aftermath.
India approached the attack in a two-fold strategy.
Firstly, India attempted to link Pakistan to the fighters, which attacked the Indian military’s convoy and then proceeded to politically and economically coerce Pakistan. Through the utilisation of disinformation and massive propaganda, the aim was to provide a legitimate pretence for a “surgical strike” against Pakistan. However, Pakistan’s response and the irrefutable evidence of shooting down an Indian aircraft made the whole endeavour moot. Pakistan’s response to the “surgical strike” provides us with the possible mode of action that Pakistan can adopt in order to counter Indian Grey Zone threats.
Firstly, Pakistan should opt for a comprehensive and uniform narrative building strategy that resonates with its long-term policy goals. This narrative should be employed to focus on features such as transparency and truthfulness. Secondly, Pakistan should revisit its cyber policies and plan for contingencies against foreign attacks by having dedicated response teams in government institutions. Thirdly, Pakistan should utilise its media and social media resources to project factual evidence in order to provide veracity to their claims.
Pakistan’s handling of the aftermath of the Balakot airstrike was a pertinent strategy to counter the effects of Grey Zone threats. The negation of military threats and the provision of irrefutable and solid evidence about the destruction of Indian aircrafts provided credibility to Pakistan’s response and its stance. By providing timely evidence, Pakistan can counteract the Indian campaign of propaganda and disinformation.
The threats of propaganda and disinformation should not be taken lightly in this era. The rapid and vast networks of social media and conventional media make it very easy to spread false narratives. In fact, it should be treated as a level of conflict. This is especially true in the case of Pakistan and India, where the latter has resorted to the utilisation of fabricated pieces of evidence and narratives to justify military action against Pakistan.
The writer works as a consultant at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute