Pakistan-Russia relations have a cloudy history of divergences that heightened during the Cold War and, the subsequent era of the Afghan War. The turning point of reviving their relations appeared in the post-Cold War period when Islamabad joined the war against terrorism, which paved the way for their institutionalised engagement in the form of establishing the Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism and, the Joint Working Group on Strategic Stability.
Currently, the growing worry in Islamabad is that Washington is moving away from its traditional act of balancing in the South Asia. The growing overtures of the United States to reinforce India’s moves to assume a regional leadership by backing New Delhi’s expanding involvement in Afghanistan are signs of destabilising of the regional balance. It casts an adverse impact on the security matrix of Pakistan. It strengthens the perception among Pakistani policy-makers that America’s traditional role of doing the balancing act between Pakistan and India might have ended with the Indo-US strategic ties, thereby creating the balancing vacuum in the region.
To fill that vacuum, it appears that at present Moscow has assumed the role of performing a very delicate act of balancing to ensure that its diplomacy towards Islamabad and New Delhi remains pertinent. It not only seeks to preserve its traditional ties with New Delhi, the key US strategic partner, but also with the pro-China Pakistan.
Moscow is attempting to extend its engaging diplomacy simultaneously towards both Islamabad and New Delhi, in which the former is progressively getting substantial place in Moscow’s foreign policy. It is reflected in the statement of Zamir Kabulov, Presidential Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, urging that Russia’s South Asia policy should expand beyond its historic Indian-centric links to equally include into its fold the Muslim-majority countries such as Pakistan.
The renewed diplomatic ties between Pakistan and Russia depict that both countries are looking at each other as complementary partners for regional balance
Responding to a question in 2017if Russia would use its influence to get Pakistan to stop the alleged attacks in the Indian-occupied Kashmir, President Vladimir Putin remarked, “We will always support India in its fight against terrorism. I believe Pakistan is taking immense steps to stabilise the situation in the country.” Contrary to the past statements urging Pakistan to dismantle the alleged terrorist infrastructure in Jammu and Kashmir in 2002, in this comment, Putin did not back India lobbying against Pakistan, accusing Islamabad for any state terrorism in the Indian-occupied Kashmir.
The situation was also clarified by Kabulov, who criticised Donald Trump’s Afghan strategy, and supported Islamabad’s crucial role in the regional security. He asserted that Islamabad is “a key regional player to negotiate with… Putting pressure [on Pakistan] may seriously destabilise the region-wide security situation, and result in negative consequences for Afghanistan.” During the Heart of Asia ministerial conference in Amritsar, he dismissed India and Afghanistan lambasting Pakistan, remarking, “Sartaj Aziz’s speech at the conference was friendly and constructive… it is wrong to criticise Pakistan.”
One of the rationales behind the reset of Pakistan and Russia relations is to maintain a strategic equilibrium in South Asia, which has become more fragile in the backdrop of the Indo-US strategic alliance. It also has potential, in a larger context, to upset the Eurasia-Pacific strategic equilibrium in future. It is evident in the signing of the Indo-US bilateral Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement in 2016. The memo addresses India as America’s crucial defence partner. This may spoil the Russian vision of a multi-polar Eurasian integration, while creating more regional insecurity that will ultimately lead to little economic integration among the regional states. In that case, Moscow could possibly be encouraged to maintain balance against such anti-integration forces by moving towards Islamabad.
The objective of Moscow’s grand strategic vision of the Eurasian Economic Union is primarily regional integration in the Eurasian continent in which Pakistan’s geostrategic position plays an important role. New Delhi’s grand strategic aim of becoming a major power at the cost of regional security seems to be a worrisome element in disturbing the delicate strategic balance in South Asia, and the strategic equilibrium in the Eurasia-Pacific region with America’s blessing. This may create space for prospective strategic cooperation between Pakistan and Russia for maintaining the regional stability.
The Indo-Russia defence calculus has a privileged status. Moscow’s support to India for procurement of the permanent membership of the UNSC, the NSG and the Nuclear Elite Club would have serious implications on Pakistan’s strategic calculus. However, it appears that Moscow is playing its cards very cautiously as it does not want to evoke New Delhi’s doubts and worries regarding Pakistan-Russia emerging closeness in face of the fact that New Delhi is already turning towards the US.
There are also reports quoting Moscow that it would not give up its regional interests to satisfy New Delhi. It was observed in 2012 in the statement of Sergei Lavrov, “If Russia continues to snub Pakistan in favour of India, it would ultimately run contrary to the interests of Russia’s security.” It was even elaborated in a statement of Kabulov, “Moscow did not complain about India’s close cooperation with the US, and so India also should not complain about a much lower level of cooperation between Russia and Pakistan.”
Equally pertinent are the comments made in 2012 by the Russian scholar, Ruslan Pukhov. He remarked, “Delhi’s attempts to diversify its supplies of new weapons increasingly from western countries are making Russia flinch. Moscow has explained to Delhi… that it can also diversify its military-technical ties by means of a rapprochement with Pakistan.”
It seems, therefore, that despite challenges to the emerging Pakistan-Russia rapprochement in the wake of uneasiness from the US and India, chances of successful Pakistan-Russia relations are likely to get a meaningful headway. The renewed diplomatic ties between Pakistan and Russia depict that both countries are looking at each other as complementary partners for regional balance.
The writer is a research officer at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute