During the last 15 years of war against terrorism in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India have been engaged in an intense intelligence war, targeting their diplomatic missions in Kabul and blaming each other of sponsoring terrorist groups in Balochistan and Kashmir. India believes that Pakistan supports Kashmiri groups including Lashkar-i-Taiba and Hezbul Mujahedeen to carry out attacks against its armed forces, while Pakistan understands that India supports TTP, Daesh and Baloch nationalist to disrupt its peace efforts in Balochistan province. The two states are also involved in an unending proxy war in Afghanistan, where they have turned Afghan society into two rival camps. The Karzai administration open-heartedly offered India an opportunity to establish its terror recruitment camps against its traditional enemy, Pakistan. This was a golden opportunity where India trained its fighters and sent them to Pakistan to carry out suicide attacks. Terrorist incidents in Patankot, Uri and Balochistan exacerbated the level of tension between the two states. Indian Interior Minister immediately issued a statement in which he termed Pakistan as terrorist state, while Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar and other extremist Hindu leaders demanded the change of no first use policy of nuclear weapons against Pakistan. Those statements set forth a hot debate among nuclear experts.
The arrest of Indian intelligence officers in Balochistan generated many controversial debates that exposed the country’s involvement with terrorist groups in the region. Director ISPR, General Bajwa confirmed Mr. Yadav’s motive to sabotage the CPEC, reviving traditional terror-related operations, and constituting a new force to carry out attacks against government and civilian installations. India’s intentions about the CPEC became crystal clear from the statement of Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi in China where he vehemently bashed the CPEC and called the project unacceptable. At present, with the commencement of the CPEC journey through Balochistan, the Indian intelligence war entered a new phase. Border tension between Pakistan in India and the massive deployment of Indian forces in Kashmir further caused in the exacerbation of terror-related incidents from an across the border in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.
The links between India and local terrorist groups cannot be ruled out as these groups continue to challenge the writ of the government in Afghanistan. On 8 August 2016, the motive of India behind the killing of innocent Pashtuns and Balochs in Baluchistan was an attempt to sabotage the CPEC project. Chief Minister of Balochistan accused RAW of being behind the attack. Pakistan understands that Baloch insurgents receive training in camps in Afghanistan, organised by Indian intelligence agency. Director General Intelligence Bureau (IB) Aftab Sultan told the Senate standing committee that his agency arrested several Indian agents. The nexus between the Indian National Security Advisor, Mr Ajit Doval and the Islamic State (ISIS) has already been reported in international press while Pakistan has often complained about Indian involvement in Balochistan. In a recent statement, Pakistan’s military establishment directly accused Indian intelligence agencies of sponsoring terrorism in the country and that it could result in increased tension between the two states.
On 15 May 2016, the accusation came at a meeting of corps commanders in Rawalpindi. They took serious notice of the Indian intelligence involvement in Baluchistan. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif in his television interview warned that RAW is an enemy organisation and that it had been formed to undermine Pakistan. On 08 September 2016, Pakistan’s foreign office accused India of financing terrorism in Pakistan, saying that “open evidence is available on India’s involvement in subversive activities.” On 18 September 2016, the Guardian reported Indian Home Minister directly accused Pakistan’s involvement in a deadly raid on a Kashmir army base that killed 17 Indian soldiers. He also labelled Pakistan a terrorist state. Mr. Rajnath Singh said Pakistan is responsible for the attack. “I am deeply disappointed with Pakistan’s continued and direct support to terrorism and terrorist groups,” he said. However, on 26 October 2016, Pakistan conveyed to the US that Indian intelligence agency RAW and Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) are patronising terrorist groups to attack soft targets in the country. Last month, the intelligence war between India and Pakistan intensified when Pakistan called its diplomatic staff from Delhi and India reciprocated in the same manner. Pakistan’s foreign office condemned the arrest of its embassy staff in India. On 03 November 2016, Pakistan foreign office said, “As you are aware, a number of Indian diplomats and staff belonging to Indian intelligence agencies RAW and IB have been found involved in coordinating terrorist and subversive activities in Pakistan under the garb of diplomatic assignments”.
In fact, the influx of terrorist groups like ISIS and Taliban in Jalalabad province, and their control over several districts, challenged the writ of the administration and forced thousands of Afghan families to leave the region for a safe place. As a close friend of Afghanistan, India never realised to help these displaced families, build schools for children or help Afghanistan in maintaining security across the country. International Rescue Committee (2016) in its recent report spotlighted the causes of insecurity while the United Nation Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported the miseries of internally displaced people in 2016. The UN experts also reported more than 45,000 terrorists fighting against the Afghan army across the country. Propaganda machine of the Islamic State (IS) is also causing a great concern for parents as their school-going children become victim of the so called jihadist culture.
The emergence of Russia and China as economic and military powers has changed the concept of political rapprochement and diplomatic mechanism in South and Central Asia. China is deeply involved in Afghanistan, while Russia wants to revive its old contacts in the country, and extend hand of friendship to Pakistan exerting more pressure on the US and NATO forces to leave the country. Now, Russia has become a strong competitive party in Afghanistan by providing arms and training to its own Taliban group to dismantle the terrorist network of the Islamic State and form a new political alliance in the country. Both China and Russia have also established contacts with former communist leaders. Chinese and Russian Intelligence agencies are closely watching the operational mood of the ISIS and its collaboration other terrorist organisations. They face multifaceted threats from the ISIS that recruits Russian and Chinese Muslims in Afghanistan. In a recent Moscow conference, President Putin’s special representative warned that “there are several camps operated by Islamic State in Afghanistan that train people from Central Asia and some regions of Russia. The rise of Islamic State in Afghanistan is a high priority threat.” He also added that there is a wide national variety of instructors in those camps.
The writer is author of Fixing the EU Intelligence Crisis, can be reached at [email protected]