Ever since the rise of Narendra Modi on Indian political landscape, South Asia, in general, and Pakistan, in particular, have witnessed a resumption of hostilities and a Hobbesian state of perpetual war. His recent re-election, by stirring the communal cauldron, has added insult to injury.
It seems that a détente between India and Pakistan is still a far cry and peace in the region is going to be more elusive than ever before.
Bharatiya Janata Party is a right-wing Hindu nationalist party that rose to electoral power in 2014 with Modi at the helm.
Starting with a visit to Pakistan amid hopes for resumed talks, Modi’s first term was marked by a campaign to diplomatically isolate Pakistan, claims of surgical strikes against Pakistan, frequent ceasefire violations along the Line of Control, threats of a limited nuclear war, denunciation of Pakistan as epicentre of terrorism; attempts to making violations of Line of Control the new normal, vows to punish Pakistan for its support to Kashmir cause, and the quest to impose a Pax-Indica on South Asia.
Neither the opening of Kartarpur corridor, nor the extension of invitations to resume a dialogue, brought a change of heart in the hawkish Indian strategists.
Never in 70 years have Pakistan-India relations been at such a low ebb as they are today. With support from the United States, India speaks softly but carries a big stick in the region. Vis-à-vis Pakistan, New Delhi has stalled the comprehensive dialogue; made attempts to change the status of Kashmir in Indian constitution (Article 35-A and 370), sent spies and saboteurs to Pakistan, lobbied to have Pakistan blacklisted by United Nations Financial Action Task Force and opposed China Pakistan Economic Corridor for passing through a ‘disputed region’.
A détente between India and Pakistan is still a far cry
For its part, Pakistan has repeatedly offered resumption of talks for the collective good of the region. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s assurance of a new vision and new leadership; opening of the Kartarpur corridor, offer of cooperation in Pulwama attack investigation, unconditional release of a captured Indian pilot and offer of talks on all issues, including terrorism have not been accepted.
In New Delhi, Pakistan’s desire for talks is called a policy of appeasement. And yet, it has been only three months since Pakistan showed its capability and willingness to defend its territory by downing two MIG-21 jets and arresting a pilot.
The strategic community in Islamabad is of the view that ties with India might see a reset with BJP in power. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, they say was a BJP prime minister and a partisan of peace with Pakistan. They fail to see that Modi is no Vajpayee.
In the light of Kenneth Waltz’s levels of decision-making analysis, Modi 2.0 poses more dangers than its earlier version.
On an individual level, Modi 2.0 is built on hostility towards Pakistan. During his electoral campaign, he repeatedly vowed to nuke Pakistan. This cannot be dismissed as a sentimental outburst. With so many hawks in his cabinet, Modi might actually explore the possibility of plunging the region into a deadly violent conflict.
On an ideological level, Modi-tva is erected on the edifice of Hindutva – a fascist movement built on the pre-eminence of Hindu nationalism, the dream of Akhand Bharat and a rejection of two nation theory.
Domestic factors in India might also be a hurdle to normalising ties. Extremists within and outside the government might not be willing to give peace a chance. The truth is that Immanuel Kant’s democratic peace thesis according to which democracies do not go to war, has failed in the past.
The Indian narrative that talks and terrorism cannot go hand in hand is self-defeating. The current wave of insurgency in Kashmir is indigenous. It is a by-product of decades of disenfranchisement of Kashmiri youth and the use of pellet guns to suppress protest crowds in the streets.
On an international level, an anarchical character is self-evident. This situation has taken a quantum leap for the worse in the backdrop of the weak role of international law and international organisations to take necessary actions to bring peace. The Indo-US strategic nexus has emboldened India to make Pakistan a whipping boy in South Asia.
The path to normalise relations lies in acceptance, on the part of New Delhi, that there are outstanding issues between India and Pakistan that need to be addressed. A settlement of disputes is the only way forward. The 10-point comprehensive bilateral dialogue needs to be resumed. The Kashmir question needs an answer and there is a need to repose trust in the Kartarpur spirit.
Bilateral trade can follow. According to a World Bank report, the trade volume between India and Pakistan can reach $38 billion. It has been said that economic interdependence makes war less likely.
Pakistan must not be too eager for talks.
India must leave behind the past that has been its prison and give peace a chance.
Pakistan’s vision has been clear since Quaid-i-Azam said, “I sincerely hope that they (relations between India and Pakistan) will be friendly and cordial. We have a great deal to do…and think that we can be of use to each other and to the world.”
The writer is a freelancer