Eurasia has always been a dynamic polity characterised by complex alliances, multiple religions and many identities enclosed in a mesh of mountains and rivers surrounded by seas leading into the oceans. In his new book, The New Silk Roads, Peter Frankopan provides an engaging, sweeping and profound overview of how the countries of the West and East are undergoing a change; he also provides a snapshot of contemporary international relations. If his last book, The Silk Roads, was about how we got here, this one explores where we might be headed.
This article explores in the light of Frankopan’s brilliant analysis, the ways in which the international political and economic scenario is changing its pivot. In the East, we can see shifting sands. The growing cooperation and collaboration between the Eurasian countries tells an utterly different story from that of the West where, as will be shown, most countries tend nowadays to follow a policy of disengagement.
Following Donald Trump’s election, the US seems to be undoing the very rules of international order that the US itself had helped design. The first executive order that Trump signed after assuming office was for withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, one of the largest trade deals ever. Initiated by Barack Obama as a ‘pivot to Asia’, the deal involved $28 trillion in trade and investment. The TPP member countries encompassed 40 per cent of the world’s total GDP, 26 per cent of its trade, and 793 million of its consumers. Overlooking all these facts, Trump dismissed the deal in his bid to Make America Great Again.
Then there is Brexit wherein people of the United Kingdom decided to unshackle themselves from what they called Brusselcrats (referring to Brussels) as they voted to leave the European Union. If that is not enough, consider Trump’s decision to withdrw from the United Nations Human Rights Council in 2018. There are other secessionist elements in Europe such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen in France.
Switch to the Eastern Hemisphere, a region coalescing into an economic bloc of sorts. The countries of this region are rich in resources; Russia, Central Asia and Middle East together account for 70 per cent of the total proven global oil reserves and 65 per cent of gas reserves. Russia, Turkey, Pakistan, India, China and a few others produce more than half of the world’s wheat, and East Asia along with Southeast Asia has 85 per cent of the world’s rice production. Russia and China account for almost three-quarters of rare earth elements, an important part of today’s digital economy.
China, as was evident in its recent second BRI Summit, now emanates a different confidence. While Trump talks of tariffs and trade wars, Xi Jinping declared the BRI initiative open for all
Then there is a string of initiatives being carried on in the region. There is the Eurasian Economic Union between Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Armenia, Two Corridors, One Economic Circle of Vietnam, Development Road of Mongolia, and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. Topping it all is the multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative covering both the land and marine routes.
China, as was evident in its recent second BRI Summit, exudes a new confidence. While Trump talks of tariffs and trade wars, Xi Jinping declared the BRI initiative open for all. US’s withdrawal from the TPP has also created room for China to come with its own version of it known as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Parnership, a project almost as ambitious as the TPP, covering 40 per cent of global GDP and 3.5 billion people. Iran, Russia and China are cooperating on various political and diplomatic fronts. There can be a possible energy nexus in future in this region.
However, not everything is that rosy. Eurasian countries have an extremely diverse population in terms of social, cultural and religious preferences. In the Middle East, Syria, Iraq and Iran continue to be in a political and security meltdown. Afghanistan is still held by the Taliban, and many attempts at talks have failed. Pakistan and India are nowhere near any peaceful understanding; rather, the recent events signalled how things might heat up in a matter of moments in the subcontinent. Central Asian countries have their border disputes.
China faces a dilemma of its own: a trade off between power and economic growth. China’s 1.3 billion people are as much a weakness as a strength. It depends on the way they are handled. The Chinese Communist Party is cognizant of the grand bargain that a stable society ensures their tenure in power whilst reducing risks of any revolt. However, that stability comes only because of continuous economic growth. Here is the difficult part; for the country to continue progressing economically the CCP will have to yield power in many ways, and introduce more liberal – not necessarily a copy of the West – values and methods for entrepreneurs and businessmen in the country to attract foreign investment.
Herein lays the dilemma and the most critical question for the CCP: to what extent is it ready to give up power and in which areas? Not an easy question to answer.
Notwithstanding the natural, inherent problems the Eurasian countries encounter, the recent trends in the region are exciting and in many cases opposite of those in the West. To quote from Frankopan’s latest book: “All roads used to lead to Rome. Today they all lead to Beijing”.
The writer is a freelancer