The Great Game that began between the Russian and the Britain empires and culminated in the fight for dominance over Afghanistan came to an end with the collapse of the Soviet Unionin 1991. That development created a power vacuum in the Central Asian region, which is rich in hydrocarbon wealth and other precious mineral resources.
Russia, China and the United States, all big internatioal players with vested interests, rushed to fill the vacuum. The stampede has resulted in a new great game: a potential collision of three great powers trying to roll back one another’s influence. Unlike the earlier Great Game, today’s great game is global. It is more complex and much more dangerous.
G Asgar Mitha says, “It is now clear that in the renewed great game there are more players and more rivalry than during the game played out between Britain and Russia in the 19th and 20th centuries. In that game there was one winner and one loser. The stakes for which the game is now being played are global supremacy, energy, geography, geopolitical security, religion and financial control.”
The geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic importance of Central Asia is an open secret. The region has been described as the heart of the world. Geographer Halford John Mackinder wrote in 1994, “Whoever rules Eastern Europe, commands the heartland and the one who rules the heartland commands the world.” The Central Asian energy resources are far larger than the energy resources of the Middle East. The Central Asian energy resources are enough to meet the needs of big energy consumers like Russia, China and the US. They can be the best substitute for the Middle East energy resources. Supplies from the Middle East are vulnerable due to risk of terrorism and ongoing civil wars.
It is due to this reason that the big players are engaged in efforts to outsmart one another in order to gain as much share from the available pool of energy resources as possible. This competitive engagement among the three big powers to establish hegemonic control over the region is euphemistically called the New Great Game. The three key players in the new great game all have vested interests in the region.
China is one of the most influential players in the new great game. Bejing’s political strategy for Central Asia is guided by two important factors (i) To get lion’s share of the hydrocarbon resources of Central Asia by building profitable and long lasting economic ties with region (ii) physical integrity of the People’s Republic of China, security of its national borders and promotion of regional stability.
Also important is the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative by China, which has added a new chapter in the great power competition over the Eurasian chessboard. BRI land routes can reduce Chinese dependence on the traditional maritime routes, ending its vulnerability to a naval blockade. This is a priority in the face of the ongoing tension between China and the US.
The project clashes with the established Russian initiatives in the region, all of which feed into the common fear of Beijing attempting to usurp Moscow’s traditional sphere of influence. Against this backdrop, the prospects for Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union look dim against China’s BRI. The arrangement is fairly stable for now, yet fears of instability from South and Central Asia have forced Beijing to slowly raise its security profile.
To counter the American designs, China and Russia have entered into a marriage of convenience
Russia is also working aggressively to further its interests in the region. Moscow’s interests in the region are diverse. The first is the fear of proliferation of the region’s secessionist movements, which may be tempted to make use of Islamic extremism, a perception shared by Beijing. Russia sees religious extremism, weapon smuggling and drug trafficking is an existential threat.
Russia’s second interest in the region is the quest for hydrocarbon resources. Russia leaves no stone unturned to maintain its central role in extraction, refining and export of these energy resources to the European market.
Realising that it cannot scupper the American plan for a hegemony while acting alone, Russia is now willing to join hands with states that share its concern over the US penetration into Central Asia. This has brought it closer to China, which also wants to contain the growing American influence in the region. The Russia-China copperation to counter American moves is conspicuous in the form of Shanghai Corporation Organisation of which they are founding members.
America has been a formidable rival to both China and Russia. Now it is also deeply interested in the New Great Game. Its interest in the region has grown since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the subsequent shift in the international power structure. Its first priority in the region was to oust the communist ideology from Central Asia and to introduce a market-based economy through liberal political and economic reforms.
The US interest in Central Asia got a dramatic boost after the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. The Pentagon quickly negotiated deals in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to supply its war effort and to protect its commercial interests in the energy-rich Caspian basin and secure its supply lines to Afghanistan. The US was keen also to prevent what Fiona Hill called the “Afghanicisation” of Central Asia – spillovers from Afghanistan and the growth of terror groups.
It is also now obvious that Washington too has an unambiguous interest in the energy resources of Central Asia. It has entered into many agreements with the Central Asian Republics. America is eager to establish its hegemony over the region to guarantee uninterrupted supply of fuel for its requirements.
To counter the American designs, China and Russia have entered into a marriage of convenience. They have formed synergies to shatter the American dreams in the region. While China does not seem as driven by aggressive anti-western sentiment as Russia, Beijing and Moscow share the strategic goal: to reduce western influence particularly the Americanisation of the world. China is delivering the capital to bolster new alliances. Russia is delivers the political poison to weaken the old ones. It is a perfect match.
While Russia is showing military ruthlessness, China is offering a mercantile variant. China is not letting human rights and the rule of law get in the way of investments. In late 2017, Beijing increased its investment in Ukraine, announcing tht it is seen as an important building block in its new Silk Road to Europe. The government in Kiev has already declared 2019 “the year of China” in Ukraine. China and Russia stand ready as alternative models and protective powers to CARs, offering new arrangements for bilateral and multilateral alignments.
It is premature to conclude who will win the New Great Game. All three key players are powerful and well-equipped for long campaigns. The best one can hope for is that they will avoid an armed conflict.
The writer is a lawyer based in Jafarabad, Balochistan