US President Doanld Trump and President of North Korea Kim Jong Un held a second summit in Vietnam in February 2019. It ended without tangible results. This showed how great a gulf of understanding exists between the two countries. However, both are still probably hopeful to attain their goals in mutual interest through dialogue.
The tension in the Korean peninsula and around the region reduced when the US-North Korea summit was held in June last year at Singapore. Japan is apprehensive about the latter’s policies. Before the first summit, the Prime Minister of Japan held meetings with President Trump. Obiviously, along with others, the matter of dialogue between the US and North Korea came under discussion.
At the end of the summit in Singapore, a joint statement was issued on June 12, 2018. The two countries pledged to improve relations in accordance with the desire of the people of the two countries for peace and prosperity. It also provided to establish stable peace in the peninsula.
The US wants denuclearization of North Korea. The latter considers its nuclear assets as a guarantee to its existence. Thus, the development of consensus which may cause destruction of nuclear arsenals of North Korea and provide enough regional or international arrangement to ensure zero threat to it may take a long time.
The summit in Hanoi, Vietnam broke without issuing any formal joint statement. The reason of the failure of the summit according to Washington was that that North Korea wanted the complete lifting of sanctions. The failure of the summit may have the following impact on the state of peace and prosperity in the Korean peninsula and around.
Firstly, North Korea may initiate new endeavors to have more nuclear weapons which may increase tension. Secondly, rapproachment between North Korea and South Korea may suffer a set back. Thirdly, the concept of the US protection for maintaining peace in the peninsula may get fresh blood. Fourthly, Japan and South Korea may incline further towards the US. Fifth, the three way tug of war in the peninsula between the US and Russia and China may gain momentum. Presently, North Korea has mustered support of both the countries. Lastly, every country will have to ensure to sail their respective ships smoothly and without any danger in the troubled waters.
At the end of the summit in Singapore, a joint statement was issued on June 12, 2018. The two countries pledged to improve relations in accordance with the desire of the people of the two countries
The peninsula is surrounded by East China Sea, Yellow Sea, Korea Sea and Sea of Japan. Japan meets 80 percent of its oil requirements from the countries located around the Persian Gulf. The ships carrying oil has to pass through East China Sea. Thus, the peaceful water of the sea is in the interest of Japan.
The Sea of Japan connects the Pacific Ocean, Sea of Okhotsk and East China Sea. The Sea is full of natural resources including petroleum and plenty of fish population. Fish is important food in Japan. Moreover, Japan is deficient in natural resources. The ships of Japan, South Korea, North Korea and Russia use to catch fish from the Sea.
Failure and success of the U.S in denuclerisation of North Korea may benefit it. In case of unsuccess, sense of insecurity may enhance in Japan and South Korea. Consequently, dependence of both the countries will increase on the U.S. If North Korea decides to cease its nuclear activities, then the US may emerge as sole power that restore peace in the region and its influence may gradually increase. However, probably the status quo is more beneficial to the US.
Firstly, North Korea has slowed down or stopped its nuclear activities. Secondly, Japan and South Korea may have taken breath of relief due to North Korea’s above step. Thirdly, the U.S has emerged as mediator to conduct dialogue for peaceful Korean peninsula. Fourthly, such emergence of the US may create some problems for Russia and China. Lastly, US foreign policy may gain a boost in surrounding regions.
It is the right of each state to protect its existence. The countries located in and around the peninsula must initiate dialogue to remove the misunderstanding and resolve standing issues. The involvement of outside power may not yield the desired result of the ongoing peace efforts.
The writer is an author and has a doctorate in Political Science