Since the end of the Cold War, geostrategic trends in the region have paved the way for Pakistan and Russia to enhance their bilateral relations but unfortunately a very little has been materialised for many years. The changing dynamics of international politics and thestrategic landscape of the region in contemporary era have provided an opportunity for both countries to come close. The 12thmeeting of Pakistan-Russia Consultative Groupwas held on March 2, 2018 in which both countries agreed upon the need to enhance the bilateral relations based on politico-economic and defence cooperation.
Pakistan’s geostrategic location is an element due to which the country has significance in contemporary global environment. A new chapter of economic cooperation in the region has been realized i.e. the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with one of its component China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and operationalisation of Gwadar portis foreseen as a future hub of themaritime trade routes. China has openness regarding inclusion of regional countries in CPEC including Russia. The corridor once operationalized will facilitate the regional trade activities, providing an opportunity to Russia to integrate economically. The bilateral trade has reached to a level of $660 million in current financial year and it is expected to extend up to $750-800 million by the end of year. Under energy cooperation both countries have signed an inter-corporate agreement ofa gas pipeline project worth US $10 Billion on February 6, 2019 in Islamabad. TheBuild-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) based North-South gas pipeline project connecting Karachi to Lahore will help Pakistan to meet the future energy needs. The pipeline will further enhance the energy cooperation between the two countries.
In the context of regional security and stability, Pakistan and Russia share some common interests vis-à-vis the Afghan endgame
The defence cooperation between the countries have seen a gradual uplifting since 2014, when both countries agreed to enhance the ties during Russian Defence Minister General Sergei Shoigu’s visit to Pakistan. Initially it was supposed that Pakistan will purchase 20 Mi-35 combat helicoptersbut the deal ended up with just 4 in number due to financial constraints. In June 2015, the then army chief GeneralRaheel Sharif and subsequently in April 2018, General Qamar JavedBajwa the current army chief of Pakistan have visited Russia for prospects of enhancing defence ties.As an outcome of these visits in August 2018 both countries have signed a ‘Defence Cooperation Agreement’ under which Pakistani troops will be provided training in Russian military institutions. Russia and Pakistan also agreed to conduct joint military exercises the ‘Druzhba’ (friendship)Annual Drillsseriesunder which Druzhba-I 2016was held in Pakistan, Druzhba-II 2017was held in Russia and Druzhba-III 2018again in Pakistan. In February 2019, Russia also participated Pakistan Navy’s international exercise ‘Aman 2019’based on theme ‘together for peace’. The Russian participation in these exercises implies the prospects of enhancement of maritime cooperation in future.
In the context of regional security and stability, Pakistan and Russia share some common interests vis-à-vis the Afghan endgame. On February 4, 2019 Russia hosted ‘Afghan Peace Talks’ between the Taliban delegate and the members of Afghan opposition including former president Hamid Karzai. Prior to that on November 9, 2018 Russia also hosted talks between Taliban and the Afghan Peace Council. Though the Afghans consider Russia as an aggressor state, based on the history of invasion, but Russia has come out with new aspirations reasserting itself in the settlement of Afghan dispute.In December 2018, during Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s visit to Russia both countrieshave acknowledged each other’s efforts and agreed to facilitate such talks in future.
The recent military escalation between Pakistan and India has shocked the international community. There has been a very reluctant and delayed response from the international community especially from the great powers like Russia.Once Pakistan retaliated in response to Indian aggression and captured an Indian pilot after shooting down two jets on 27thFebruary, at that time international community feared further escalation.Realizing the sensitivity of the situation,on February 28, 2019 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov offered mediation role, though it was a late offer but welcomed by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi.
Pakistan-Russia bilateral relations in the current geostrategic environment still require a long way to go but the ‘ice-breaking’ has started.There are opportunities for both countries to enhance economic cooperation by increasing the bilateral trade and materializing gas pipelines project. At political and diplomatic front both countries have developed a set of understanding on regional security issues i.e. Afghan issue in context of presence of ISIS there. In defence sector the ‘defence cooperation agreement’ is a good initiative but they need to further engage with each other in the form of technology sharing and joint military ventures toconvert the existing ties into a ‘StrategicPartnership’ in future.Both countries should reach more frequently to each other in all domains to expand the bilateral relations.
The writer is working as a Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), Islamabad
Published in Daily Times, March 17th 2019.