Prime Minister Theresa May will confront European leaders Wednesday over the fate of the Irish border when Britain quits the EU next year, as Brexit talks enter a final three month scramble.
May will have a short opportunity to address EU leaders meeting at an informal summit in the Austrian city of Salzburg at their evening dinner, before a full day of talks on Thursday dominated by Brexit and the migration crisis.
Officials on both sides of the Channel hope that Salzburg will give new impetus to the divorce negotiations ahead of a crunch summit in Brussels on October 18 and then a probable last-gasp Brexit gathering in mid-November.
But first the issue of the border must be settled, with both camps coming up against their “red lines”. If it is not resolved the chances of Britain stumbling into a chaotic and damaging break-up next March with its neighbours and main trading partner will soar.
Salzburg’s host, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, said it was important for the 27 non-British members to stick together. In an interview with newspaper the Standard, he warned that finding a solution before November “would be anything but easy.”
Neither side wants a “hard border” to spring up between Northern Ireland, a British-ruled province, and the Irish Republic when London splits from the EU single market and customs union, as this would hurt trade and might undermine the Good Friday peace agreement.
But Europe is insisting on a “backstop” that would keep Northern Ireland in the customs union under EU rules while a future trade relationship is negotiated. London sees this as a threat to its sovereignty and refuses to countenance a de facto Irish Sea frontier.
‘Hard border’
As the British team prepared to set off, a senior government source said: “Neither side can demand the unacceptable of the other, such as an external customs border between different parts of the United Kingdom.
“No other country would accept it if they were in the same situation,” the source added, insisting that the European Commission’s proposal does not respect “the constitutional and economic integrity of the UK.”
Speaking in Brussels on the eve of Wednesday’s get together, Europe’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier was at pains to appear conciliatory, even if his proposition differed little from the long-standing EU position.
“Our proposal for the backstop on Ireland and Northern Ireland has been on the table since February,” he said, while adding: “We are ready to improve this proposal.”
Specifically, Barnier said that he would “clarify” which goods will have to be checked by customs officers as they are transported between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland.
“We can also clarify that most checks can take place away from the border, at the company premises or in the market,” he said. “We need to de-dramatise the checks that are needed.”
Whether this offer will be enough for May remains in doubt.
Her parliamentary majority depends on support from Northern Ireland loyalists bitterly opposed to any weakening of links with the UK and she faces a difficult Conservative Party conference at the end of month.
Future ties
Officials say that 80 percent of the divorce settlement is agreed, but that progress must be made quickly on Ireland and on the parallel political statement that will lay out a blueprint for future relations.
London wants a detailed outline of future trade ties in exchange for paying billions of euros the EU says it is owed in dues. Brussels appears ready to fudge a plan to at least get the UK departure from the bloc out of the way.
“We will discuss how to organise the final phase of the Brexit talks,” EU Council President Donald Tusk said, in a letter inviting the 28 leaders to the informal summit.
They will consider, he confirmed, “the possibility of calling” a special summit in November after having initially set October’s formal summit as the deadline.
A November emergency summit would still give the British, European and member state parliaments enough time to debate and ratify the terms before March 2019, when Britain would otherwise crash out without a plan.
“Unfortunately, a no-deal scenario is still quite possible,” wrote Tusk, who chairs the EU leader summits. “But if we all act responsibly, we can avoid a catastrophe.”
Published in Daily Times, September 20th 2018.