That the Taliban are in resurgence is clear. This week alone has seen the militant group overrun two Afghan military bases. In addition, a new UN report has found that the outfit is still closely allied to its old friend, Al Qaeda. Worryingly, the latter is identified as posing a bigger long-term threat to western security, and subsequently Afghan peace, than the Islamic State or the ISIS.
According to American military officials on the ground, Al Qaeda is playing the long game. Meaning it is, for now, content to fly strategically below the radar as it quietly supports the Taliban in its battle against both the Afghan state and ISIS. The implication being that what happens when it effectively regroups could potentially be nightmarish.
This begs the question as to whether or not the Taliban, by extension, also fall within the ranks of those representing the deadliest and most urgent threat to peace. The Taliban have been pushing a single point agenda: the withdrawal of all foreign troops from the country. By contrast, Al Qaeda has always been committed to the West’s destruction.
The timing of the UN dossier — the 22nd report to be submitted by the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team to the UNSC Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee — could not have come at a worse time for Washington given that it is poised to hold a second round of one-on-one talks with the Taliban next month. That the latter have compromised on the question of international forces is to be welcomed. But suspected ties with Al Qaeda are worrying. If true, then Pakistan’s efforts may have been undermined. For the same UN report commended Pakistan’s counter-terror performance in FATA in terms of flushing out safe-havens and seizing weapons caches.
Bluntly put, what ordinary Afghans are witnessing is a return to the status quo; whereby they are being held hostage by the same two militant outfits as at the beginning of the longest-ever US war. With the added disadvantage of being caught in the ISIS crossfire. In large part, this is down to missteps in military planning. For the American focus has for the last two years rested heavily on members of the ‘target-rich’ ISIS which are relatively easy to spot given their presence in urban areas. By contrast, Al Qaeda operatives are known for their ability to blend in to inhospitable mountain terrain. Though since the last high-level commander was taken out by the Americans back in 2016, members were believed to have fled to Syria, among other places. That is, one of the countries, along with Iraq, from where ISIS is fleeing to end up in Afghanistan.
This is the extraordinarily complex web into which Pakistan is expected to step, at Washington’s repeated behest, to lead the charge towards regional peace. While a stable western neighbour is in this country’s interest — the US must take responsibility for its military strategy with a view to a long overdue rethink. The decision as to whether it should proceed with the follow-up round of preliminary Taliban peace talks cannot be a unilateral one. All regional stakeholders must be consulted. That being said, the final say rests with the Afghan people. For they have suffered the most in this sorry tale. *
Published in Daily Times, August 17th 2018.