Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with US President Donald Trump in Washington and Florida on 10-11 February. This is the second meeting between them within a short span of time. Earlier, Abe met with him after the polls in November. The present meeting turned out to be the first official meeting between the two leaders of two democracies and large economies, facing a number of bilateral challenges and global issues.
There are two apprehensions on the Japanese side: one is the question of trade and currency, and the other is security. Trump has drastic policy options on both issues. He already scrapped the 12-member Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), fearing it adverse for US trade and the economy. He has also different on views on the seven-decade old US-Japan military alliance.
He also looks at this alliance from an economic point of view. He does not want to spend the American tax payers’ money in maintaining the defence of Japan. He well understands the vitality of alliance as unshakable cornerstone of peace and stability in the Pacific region, as mentioned by him after making the Joint Statement. This means that he may continue with the alliance in military terms but would be insisting Japan to pay the entire cost of the alliance. So far, discussion continues between Japan and the United States about Trump’s vision on defence with Japan but no decision has been taken during these parlays too. Probably, it will take more time to settle on this issue.
One thing is sure that the military alliance would not be conventional any longer. This may also decrease American criticism of Japan inside America and also in the world. Trump, on the other hand, is committed on the South China Sea policy covering the Senkaku Island, a source of tension between Japan and China. The United States supports Japan on this issue. Both warned against militarisation of the South China Sea.
After the TPP withdrawal, Trump wants Japan to invest in the US infrastructure building and high-speed railway projects, while he does not want to invest in Japanese defence. He wants Japan to create more jobs for the Americans by investing. Trump wants a free, fair, and reciprocal trade with Japan. He wants to address the unfair trade surplus of Japan vis-à-vis the United States. The issue of currency was not discussed in the talks, leaving it to discuss it at the ministerial level. Trump does not believe that the currency devaluation is fair for trade. For a sceptical Japan, the decision would reset the foundation of its new ties with the United States as a reliable partner in trade and security in the past seven decades.
While the world is upset about US President Donald’s Trump’s foreign policy postures, he is striking a fair balance in maintaining relations with Japan and China. Before Abe’s coming to Washington, Trump spoke to President Xi Jingping on the phone a day earlier he met with Abe and told him that conversation with President Xi was good and warm and it will benefit Japan. Does this also mean ‘‘China First’’ than Japan for Trump?
Moreover, he backs “One China’’ policy and pledges to abide by the protocol of recognising Beijing not Taipei set to ease US-China tensions. It was a message to Japan too. It could be interpreted in many ways. He might be asking Japan to revise its stand toward China and enter into a meaningful dialogue with it — the way America is doing.
Trump is riding on his own Asia Pivot and re-balance approach. It’s about the mending of ties. The Asahi Shimbun wrote in its editorial on 12 February that ‘‘the latest discussions also showed that, despite Japan’s same old stance, Trump is attaching importance to relations with China and taking a multifaceted approach to diplomacy toward Asia’’, reflecting a change in American policy.
Trump is showing a kind of detachment with the past in traditional security and trade relations with Japan. “America First’’ reflected in his conversation with Abe. Trump wants Japan to improve its relations with China. This would lessen America’s responsibilities in the Asia-Pacific. Many messages have been given to Japan. Would Japan also be thinking of “Japan First’’ or blindly supporting US policies elsewhere in the world as happened in the past especially after 9/11. This had entangled Japan’s position on many accounts. The meeting was a ‘‘food for thought’’ for Abe. No high expectations, as anticipated by Abe, were achieved.
The slowdown of ties between Japan and the United States would positively impact upon its ties with China, on the one hand, and enhance anxiety about Japan bourgeoning ties with India, on the other hand. A new pattern of ties has been un-surfacing in the geo-strategic scene of the Asia-Pacific under the Trump Administration in the next four years, creating more changes for peace and stability in the region.
The writer is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad. He writes on China, Japan, Koreas, and East Asian affairs.