The current political melodrama is impairing our judgment to know as to who is the villain and who is the hero.
Different politicians have played different roles and shaped the political discourse in a different way, but the role of the former president Asif Ali Zardari has been the most significant.
Meanwhile, the rulling party, PML-N, is under constant and enormous pressure by most powerful and dominant quarters of the country.
The closes ally of the former premier Nawaz Sharif and Minister for Foreign Affairs Khawaja Asif has been disqualified for life by Islamabad High Court. The disqualification was another victory for Imran Khan who had been giving signals for another surprise.
It was, at least, not a surprise. The decision came at a when general elections are around the corner. Due to the unpredictability of national narrative and political events, an apt analysis of the future is difficult.
Unfortunately, Khawaja Asif was also disqualified on the accusation of ‘Iqama’, and non-disclosure of his salary that he was getting from a UAE based company.
The fact is that N-league still has strong roots in central Punjab but the political situation does not seem to be in favour of N-League. The party will still be able to manage to bag votes. However, the sentiments in southern Punjab are not the same.
Recently, four more MPAs from Southern Punjab left the party and joined newly formed political alliance Janoobi Punjab Jamhoori Ittehad.
Furthermore, it seems that in the coming months, PML-N’ challenges are not going to be decreased. But in politics, doors of reconciliation always remain open. So, in this pretext, N-League need to find a middle way to save democracy and for its face-saving.
N-League leadership, particularly Nawaz Sharif could shake hands with former president and co-chairman of PPP Asif Ali Zardari as he is the best player of ‘political chess’ and the common rule of chess is to remain silent till the checkmate.
It is, however, an unpleasant fact that N-League has already lost this chance.
Mr Zardari calm’s is confused some most senior journalists too as he is not actively taking part in current political warfare between N-League and PTI.
He is playing his pawns carefully. Therefore, his party is favourite to form the federal government. Maybe this sweeping statement would be my dream. So, we need to analyse the current dynamics of national politics deeply in following lines:
Ironically, some new small religious political groups are trying to take advantage of the present political instability. Credible sources predict that the emergence of Barelvi and Shia groups will have an impact on the general elections as well
As we all know that the electoral politics is always a numbers’ game. PPP enormously worked on the political front in Sindh to secure and increase its support base and MQM’s split would also be beneficial for the party in the urban areas of the province.
Some reliable sources claim that PPP could win 10 more seats from Sindh and Karachi than 2013 general elections.
In Punjab, PPP is apparently nowhere but still, the party could grab around 15-seats. This figure could be difficult to achieve but PPP has a solid strategy to make this dream a reality.
Party leadership has already shortlisted heavyweights from Punjab to counter his rivals and there is also a possibility that a few PPP’s candidates will contest the election as an independent candidate and join the part after the victory.
The same case in KP and Balochistan, PPP has a potential to win seven to eight seats from both provinces. If you calculate the numbers, PPP could make a government in Federation and Sindh with the help of independent members and small political parties or even in the worst ever scenario PPP could make an alliance with the winning party in the federation and become the junior partner. PPP would surely and easily make the provincial government of Sindh which is, of course, would not be in favour of political future of PPP to ‘trapped’ in a single province.
PPP could win around 65 to 75 NA seats which are good numbers indeed.
Punjab has 141 general seats at the present. If we analyse precisely, N-League arch-rival in Punjab, PTI is aggressively concentrating on the province.
Emerging of new groups ie Janubi Punjab Jamhoori Ittehad could win a good number of seats. A big number of political heavyweights have a potential to make upset.
If we conclude, N-League and PTI would likely to get not more than 47 to 50 NA seats in an ideal situation.
Furthermore, PTI is not going to win more than 10 NA seats in KP and Balochistan jointly. Likewise, N-League seats in both provinces would be more or less same.
The reason is the possible revival of MMA and JUI(F) and we all are well aware, JUI(F) always part of winning party. So PPP has a chance to make a significant political upset as Independent candidates of Punjab and FATA would prefer to join the winning party too.
In this political narrative, PPP has a clear chance to make a government in Sindh and even in Punjab and Balochistan too. PTI could replace PPP in Punjab but still, it seems not possible yet.
While, PTI aggressive politics and slogan ‘Naya Pakistan’ could make a difference but once again, it would be difficult for PTI to make alliances with other major parties and it will be impossible for it to make a government standalone even in KP.
So, it could be a serious blow for the ruling party of the province where people cast vote on the performance and we cannot say that PTI performance is above the average in the province.
PTI’s internal conflicts and electoral strategy also negatively influenced on its political journey as it is focusing on Punjab only. KP provincial Government like Punjab also ignored the southern parts of the province. So, the situation is not ideal for both parties.
ANP also has a potential to re-emerge because of Manzoor Pashteen’s Pakhtun Tahafuz Movement, which is reviving the nationalist sentiments in the Pakhtun belt.
Ironically, some new small religious political groups are trying to take advantage of present political instability. Credible sources predict that the emergence of Barelvi and Shia groups would have an impact on the results of general elections too.
You may differ with the above-mentioned hypotheses but analysis always based on assumptions.
For example, there have been strong rumours about the creation of forward block in N-League for last several months and some analysts still believe in this gossip. Interestingly, we have always been bashing the politicians who change their parties, but constitutionally and democratically, an individual is allowed to change his loyalty or form his/her own party. They are not harming democracy.
It is a fact that every party needs electable who has the potential to win elections.
Last but not least, Balochistan is the province where the powerful establishment has an undercover influence. For instance, a Brigadier-rank army officer could decide the political fate of country’s largest province.
This practice should need to be banned and give the opportunity to the real representatives of the province to govern them. We observed the worst ever practice in the province where presently 3rd Chief Minister is serving his duties in just five years term.
At present, a record 104 parties are registered with Election Commission of Pakistan but main players of power politics are few. In a multi-party democracy, every party should have a say or even they are able to highlight the issues of common persons but the case in Pakistan is totally different.
Furthermore, manifestos of political parties have become a trash of paper and only a few families are ruling the mainstream politics.
The third point is about the demands to make national government, long-term interim government, or technocrat’s government by ‘Masked Analysts’ who are creating confusion. They are misguided missiles and making troubles for national political discourse.
Some days ago an assistant professor at NDU was claiming without any proof that RAW is funding PTM. It’s a bad joke indeed. Meanwhile, we need to be aware of these types of detractors also.
The writer is a seasoned journalist, blogger and researcher. He can be reached at [email protected]
Published in Daily Times, May 2nd 2018.