The JIT has delivered its report. All eyes are now set upon the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Much will depend on what the Supreme Court does with the report but as things stand, it is fair to say that the Pakistani ship has entered stormy waters. The report has been summarized in every single Pakistani newspaper and here I will adumbrate only on its implications.
First, the stock market. It crashed more than 2000 points on the release of the JIT report, adding to the recent loss of 7000 points. Some 20% of the market value of the KSE 100 index has been wiped out. If you convert this loss into monetary value, it amounts to more than 1000 times the value of Nawaz Sharif’s entire assets. PTI, however, will happily allow the bankruptcy of the market so long as Nawaz Sharif is forced to step down. It is almost as if political parties, TV anchors, and journalists have become as overwrought as the living dead in Will Smith’s I am legend.
Pakistan’s stock market is not the only victim of Panama. Pakistan’s economic progress now stands in real danger of being stalled, even reversed. In 2013, when PML-N came to power, electricity shortages were crippling Pakistan’s economy. Thanks to a lucky break in Pakistan’s fortune, CPEC came to her rescue. Even those who oppose PML-N viscerally have literally breathed in the much-needed cool air coming out of their fans and air-conditioners.
But if Nawaz and Shahbaz are forcibly removed, and PML-N made to disintegrate, who will have the capacity to manage and run these increasingly complex economic projects? PTI, incredible as it sounds, has not published a single report on how it will run the economy, reform PIA and Pakistan Steel Mills, increase trade, reduce unemployment and maintain dollar-rupee parity. PTI was given five years to launch projects in KP. It has not launched a single one.
True, Imran Khan has said ad nauseam that once he takes care of corruption, Pakistan will become El Dorado. However, in a recent TV interview he admitted that his initiative to run an accountability bureau in KP failed miserably. He could not answer why General Hamid was not replaced in the following three years. He could not even answer why a single case against the previous KP government was ever brought to light. How can Imran Khan ensure accountability in Pakistan if he cannot manage it in KP?
Pakistan’s economic decline will give a major fillip to the wave of extremism and terrorism that has swept the country in the last two decades. All this can be mitigated if some semblance of political stability is restored. However, not a single anchor or journalist has enlightened us as to how this can be done. The problem with Rauf Klasra, Ayaz Amir and others is that they equate Nawaz Sharif with democracy. Thus finding fault with the former, they fire angry broadsides at the latter.
Why? Because it is difficult for them to understand the fundamental building block of democracy. Democracy is a process. If you read Dickens’ novels you will get the uncanny feeling that many of the 19th century English structures and phenomena are close to what we are experiencing now. England improved over time. But if we keep taking out the plant of democracy from its pot in Pakistan every ten years to inspect whether or not it has taken root, how will Pakistan grow?
If we keep taking out the plant of democracy from its pot every ten years to inspect whether or not it has taken root — Pakistan will not grow
I am not going to comment on whether the JIT report was written under undue external guidance or whether the JIT should have flown to Qatar to interview the former Prime Minister. I will make only three points. One, most analysts, especially Ayaz Amir, are convinced Panama fell from the sky. Now the problem with history is that one has to speculate in the absence of artefacts. Did the US drop an atomic bomb on Japan to save its soldiers? Or to scare the USSR away from invading Europe? Or to prevent it from taking over Japan? My own view is that Panama was leaked deliberately, to create conditions for an eventual US-Pakistan settlement over Afghanistan. More on this later.
Two, in the widely-read article “Panama, the Supreme Court and the Future of Pakistan” written on 17 March, I had noted “Of course, the stock market of Pakistan will crash, the economic development projects including our prized CPEC will slow down, and political instability will make a triumphant return like the proverbial villain in Bollywood movies. The TV anchors and the PTI will start clamoring for the third umpire”. This was five months ago. Readers can judge themselves.
Finally, all eyes are set on the Supreme Court. We have the highest respect for the Supreme Court. We have experimented with Pakistan so many times that maybe it is time now to give experiments a rest. It is time now for political stability and economic growth. Let there be no gate-keepers. Let us trust Pakistanis. Let them choose who they wish to choose.
Above all, let us all hope that the ghost of 58-2b does not come out of its grave. If it does, then it may attract other, heavier, ghosts in its wake.
Dr Aamir Khan won the President of Pakistan’s Gold Medal at the Civil Services Academy, Lahore.
He has served as a diplomat in China
Published in Daily Times, July 15th , 2017.