2017 was, once again, a year of turmoil in more ways than one. The controversial Panama Case finally played out, yet its endgame spawned another pointed slugfest — drawing in institutions and politicians from across the spectrum — with no definitive direction till December drew to a close at least. The twin decisions regarding Imran Khan’s disqualification and Shahbaz Sharif getting off the hook in the Hudabiya Case brought some semblance of order to the political landscape. It seemed that Shahbaz, now nominated PML-N’s PM candidate for the election, would take centre stage as the party battles it out with PTI for Punjab and the centre.
But with the Sharifs suddenly jetting off to Saudi Arabia, the first few days of the new year have brought fresh political uncertainty as election season finally arrives. The first reaction, in the media as well as political circles, is of course apprehension about another NRO of sorts. But, realistically speaking, what leverage can Riyadh really exercise regarding Sharif’s future? The times when Arab Sheikhs could offer luxury exile to our leaders condemned by the courts seem a thing of the past now, even if Musharraf continues to live in comfort in Downtown Dubai.
As muddy as the political landscape is, the new year also brings other worries. Nobody has forgotten how the TTP, under Hakeemullah Mehsud at the time, wreaked havoc in the campaigning before the last election
If Sharif is really discussing asylum with the Saudis, it will be of a permanent nature — and such reports have already appeared in the foreign press. That, in turn, would imply that the House of Sharif has finally read the writing on the wall. Nawaz is simply not going to walk away strong and tall from this. His lawyers have been unable, time and again, to provide that crucial money trail without which the only future Nawaz and his children have in Pakistan is in a dark, cold prison cell. But all that, of course, is still speculation.
However the ruling party’s own silence, as well as contradictory statements about the visit, is only worsening the chatter. For example, why did Shahbaz fly there before Nawaz, that too in a special Saudi plane? Unfortunately even giant Pakistani media houses are at best like big fish circling in a small pond for a long time. That is why there have been no parallels, as yet, with the mysterious Hariri episode when the Saudi king ordered the Lebanese PM to KSA only to announce a shock resignation. Or, perhaps traces of the Sharifs’ money have sprung up in the Saudi anti-corruption purge, and they want some quick answers.
The longer the Sharifs keep mum about the real purpose of the visit, the more the anxiety in Pakistan will grow. And, again, since we are in election year, this drama could well have a pretty direct impact on the eventual vote. Surely old hands in the ruling party understand how uncertainty is sometimes much worse than bad news itself, and answers should come sooner rather than later.
Yet that’s hardly all the uncertainty everybody will have to deal with. There are plenty of other headwinds blowing any of which could turn into a full scale torrent. The Model Town case fallout, the threat of Pir Sialvi and the influence he commands from Punjab assembly all the way to the Senate, the growing momentum of TLY, all combine to cast a dark shadow on the election debate as full scale campaigning builds momentum.
Then there is the curious case of the religious right. MMA seems closer to coming back to life than at any time in the decade since its dismemberment. After disagreeing for so many years, recent visits to the polls have driven into the religious parties that their electoral reach has not improved at all in ten years, and the only chance they have is if they stick it out together. This agreement apparently began to take shape after the NA-120 by election in Lahore. Previously unheard of religious parties decided to contest, with very little time to prepare, and made a far better show than JI or even PPP. And since MML and TLY are also gearing up for the great election, a number of new potential scenarios have cropped up.
Remember, the religious right has traditionally been prime PML-N constituency. It was the conservatives, along with the bloated business community of Punjab, that brought the Sharifs to power, kept them there for thirty hears, and helped them become rich, famous and powerful. Now, though, not only has Pir Sialvi openly ordered his large community not to vote for PML-N, much of the right-of-centre argument seems strongly shifting towards MML, TLY, etc.
All this noise makes PPP’ efforts to revive after the last rout that much more difficult. Bilawal has breathed fresh life into the party, the effects of which are beginning to show, but there’s a long, hard road to take before the party can come anywhere near regaining its old glory.
As muddy as the political landscape is, the new year also brings other worries. 2017 once again saw a worrying spike in terrorism, with more attacks than the previous two years. Pakistan’s collective memory is short, but nobody would have forgotten how the TTP, under Hakeemullah Mehsud at the time, wreaked havoc in the campaigning before the last election. By targeting certain parties, hence keeping them from campaigning, they not only killed and injured hundreds, perhaps thousands, of people, but also affected the fate of the election and the country. Keeping a lid on the violence must always be number-one priority for the country.
And just as the military was regrouping to keep the momentum of Zarb-e-Azb and Rudd-ul-Fassad from unravelling, the whole world witnessed the sorry spectacle of the state’s writ eroding before a charged mob in Faizabad, setting a dangerous precedent for the year ahead.
The only points of certainty, therefore, in these first few pleasant days of January are that PTI, with Imran firm at the top, has grabbed the initiative and that newer, and more extreme, religious zealots are going to test at the election just how much of society has drifted to the right. Now, since Imran is readying to partner with JUI-S in 2018, it seems the predominant debate itself will shift way to the right of centre. Happy New Year indeed.
The writer is the Managing Editor Daily Times, tweets @yourafiq and can be reached at [email protected]
Published in Daily Times, January 8th 2018.