A potential US-Iran peace agreement could generate economic benefits worth up to $20 billion for Pakistan, according to a KTrade Securities report. The study identifies Pakistan as a major beneficiary of improved regional stability and restored trade routes. Businesses, exporters, investors, and energy consumers could all gain from a reduction in geopolitical tensions.
The report says a phased settlement between Washington and Tehran could normalize traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and improve Pakistan’s economic outlook. It projects stronger foreign exchange reserves, lower inflation, and improved trade flows with Gulf countries. Analysts estimate Pakistan could recover nearly $4 billion in exports to GCC markets while achieving a current account surplus of up to $5 billion annually.
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According to the report, the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has already cost Pakistan between $10 billion and $14 billion. The situation contributed to higher inflation, increased energy costs, and pressure on the country’s external accounts. A reduction in oil prices following a peace deal could lower inflation by up to 150 basis points and support broader economic stability.
The study highlights Gwadar Port as a key beneficiary due to its location outside the Hormuz chokepoint. Container activity at Gwadar has increased significantly, and sustained growth could generate substantial revenue from port operations, transit trade, and special economic zones. The report also points to growing Saudi investment in Gwadar’s oil storage infrastructure and related development projects.
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The report further suggests that easing sanctions on Iran could expand bilateral trade to $2 billion and revive plans for the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Lower-cost Iranian gas could save Pakistan up to $2 billion annually in energy imports. In addition, stronger regional connectivity, increased foreign investment, and expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor could provide long-term support for economic growth.