Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan Jameel Ahmad has projected that Pakistan’s inflation rate could rise to 7 percent, while expressing optimism about medium-term economic stability and growth.
مہنگائی کی شرح 7 فیصد تک جانے کا امکان ہے،گورنر اسٹیٹ بینکhttps://t.co/qBybnJRzs4
— Baaghi TV باغی ٹی وی (@BaaghiTV) May 16, 2026
Addressing the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Jameel Ahmad said the country recorded economic growth of 3.7 percent during the first nine months of the current fiscal year.
Read More: Pakistan economy stays stable: SBP report
He stated that inflation is expected to increase to around 7 percent but may begin easing during the second half of the next fiscal year. According to the central bank governor, inflationary pressures remain influenced by both domestic economic adjustments and external global conditions.
Jameel Ahmad also highlighted the State Bank’s plans to expand financing support for small and medium-sized enterprises. He said SME financing is targeted to reach Rs1,500 billion by June 2028 as part of efforts to strengthen business activity and economic inclusion.
Discussing debt management, he noted that Pakistan has increased domestic borrowing while reducing external debt exposure. He suggested this shift is part of broader efforts to manage vulnerabilities linked to foreign liabilities and exchange rate pressures.
The governor said export performance has remained below expectations due to challenging international conditions. He added that export targets for the current fiscal year were missed by approximately Rs2 billion, reflecting the impact of weaker global demand and economic uncertainty.
He also revealed that work on introducing new currency notes is underway and that the approval process with the government is continuing.
Pakistan’s economy has shown signs of relative stabilisation in recent months following policy tightening, fiscal adjustments and engagement with international financial institutions. However, inflation, energy costs and revenue pressures continue to affect households and businesses.
Read More: Inflation returns to double digits at 10.9% in April 2026
Analysts say the inflation outlook will depend heavily on fuel prices, exchange rate movements and implementation of fiscal reforms in the coming months.
The central bank’s latest projections suggest cautious optimism, with authorities balancing inflation management alongside growth and financial sector support measures.