Pakistan can currently store only about 30 days of river flow, leaving the country vulnerable to seasonal water shortages and sudden disruptions, experts have warned.
They described the “weaponisation of water” as one of the gravest threats to the Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark agreement that has survived wars and decades of diplomatic tensions between Pakistan and India.
Speaking to APP on Sunday, Professor of Water and Soil Sciences at Muhammad Nawaz Sharif Agricultural University, Dr Baqir Hussain, said the country was entering a dangerous phase in which energy shortages, water scarcity and food insecurity were converging into a single crisis, placing unprecedented pressure on the treaty, which was brokered by the World Bank in 1960. He warned that any suspension of cooperation under the treaty could threaten Pakistan’s agricultural backbone and the livelihoods of millions dependent on the Indus Basin irrigation system.
Dr Hussain said India’s move to place the treaty in abeyance could deepen the energy crisis, raise irrigation and fertiliser costs, and intensify pressure on farmers.
According to Dr Hussain, nearly 80 to 90 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the Indus River system, making the country one of the world’s most irrigation-dependent agricultural economies. He noted that per-capita water availability has fallen dramatically from about 5,000 cubic metres in the 1950s to below 1,000 cubic metres today – a threshold commonly associated with water scarcity.
He added that agriculture contributes around one-fifth of Pakistan’s economy and employs more than one-third of the workforce. Key crops including wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane rely heavily on stable irrigation supplies. International food agencies, he said, have warned that climate-driven water shortages could cut crop yields across South Asia by up to 30 percent by mid-century, worsening food insecurity and rural hardship. Dr Hussain further cautioned that accelerated melting of Himalayan glaciers was increasing short-term flood risks while creating long-term uncertainty in river flows. Changing seasonal water patterns, he said, could further complicate water management for downstream countries such as Pakistan. He urged the government to mobilize international support and press India to reverse its unilateral decision.
Meanwhile, Abbas Raza, a PhD scholar in Water and Soil Sciences at Isfahan University of Technology in Iran, said during a brief interaction with APP at MNSAU that India currently lacks the infrastructure to completely stop river flows. However, he warned that even limited disruptions could inflict serious damage, particularly during winter when river levels are low and storage capacity remains limited.
He observed that the treaty had evolved beyond a bilateral arrangement and had become central to regional food security, energy stability, and economic resilience, especially in South Asia, which is home to nearly a quarter of the world’s population.
Both experts urged Pakistan to invoke dispute-resolution mechanisms under the treaty and explore legal options, including approaching the International Court of Justice, while intensifying diplomatic engagement to protect downstream communities and uphold international water law. Referring to a recent assessment by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the experts noted that Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus Basin had reached a critical tipping point, with temporary disruptions in river flows already contributing to agricultural losses, drying irrigation channels and threatening farmers’ livelihoods. They emphasized that cooperation, rather than confrontation, remains the only sustainable path to safeguarding the region’s shared water future. app