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Asif Mahmood

May 10: A Turning Point in Strategic Calculus

Published on: May 10, 2026 1:55 AM

May 10, 2026 by Asif Mahmood

Marka e Haq was far greater than a military victory for Pakistan. It was a turning point that redrew the strategic architecture of South Asia and altered the wider conversation about power, deterrence, and modern warfare

A crunch question to the fore: what makes India decide to take a step like this against a nuclear armed Pakistan? What kind of calculation sits behind such a perilous choice? Pakistan, after all, is a nuclear power. That reality alone should weigh heavily on any strategic thinking. Unlike Iran and Israel, Pakistan and India are not separated by oceans or distant geography that creates time and space once missiles are launched. Here, the sequence is compressed. Events unfold almost in real time, where awareness and impact come dangerously close together.

Numbers alone, aircraft strength, troop counts, and weapons stockpiles, no longer defined outcomes in the same way. Marka e Haq reshaped those assumptions entirely.

There was another, even more frightening reality: the nuclear threshold, the point at which a state comes to believe that the use of nuclear weapons has become necessary for its own survival. In most conflicts this threshold remains distant, often stretched across weeks or even months of escalation. In a Pakistan India confrontation, however, it can arrive with unsettling speed, sometimes within days, at times even sooner. Yet despite this shadow hanging over the region, India chose to attack. Why?

Until we answer this question, we cannot fully comprehend what Pakistan’s armed forces achieved last May. The deeper one studies the reality of this conflict, the greater becomes one’s admiration for Pakistan’s military brilliance.

India’s calculations were evident, built on a series of assumptions.

First, it believed Pakistan’s economy was too weak to sustain a war, shaped by years of narratives around economic crisis and looming default.

Second, it assumed Pakistan was politically fractured, weakened by internal divisions and information warfare, and therefore unlikely to present a united response under pressure.

Third, it viewed Pakistan’s military as overstretched, engaged on multiple fronts due to proxy-driven instability, and unable to effectively respond to eastern aggression.

Fourth, it assumed support from Israel’s military and technological capabilities, and expected that such backing would discourage Pakistan from any meaningful resistance.

Thus India concluded it could strike Pakistan without facing a meaningful response. It assumed violations of Pakistan’s national security would gradually become a new normal. Just as Israel acts against neighbouring states at will, India believed it could carry out limited operations against Pakistan whenever it chose..

It was an extraordinarily dangerous moment. Whatever path Pakistan chose, compromise or resistance, would shape the region for decades.

Then Pakistan responded and its response echoed far beyond the region itself. Pakistan’s armed forces emerged victorious, and the nation stood with them in pride and vindication. Yet even this victory must be viewed in proper perspective.

Earlier, Narendra Modi had boasted that without Rafale jets India could never have been challenged. This time, Rafales arrived in battle. Pakistan met them with decisive force, bringing them down with striking effect. Pakistan did not target indiscriminately. It struck only those aircraft that had already released their weapons. The response was precise, selective, and controlled. It reflected a level of operational mastery that allowed complete identification and destruction of chosen targets.

At the same time, Pakistan maintained discipline in conflict. It avoided civilian targets and acted with restraint throughout. Even senior Indian military leadership came under surveillance, with evidence recorded and shared. Pakistani drones were reported operating over sensitive Indian locations, signaling reach and confidence.

Then the conflict escalated further.

India launched strikes using drones and missiles, many of them linked to Israeli systems. Pakistan had until then exercised restraint. Once that line was crossed, it launched a decisive counter response on May 10. India’s radar and communication systems were disrupted, leaving its forces disoriented. For several hours, Pakistan maintained dominance over the Indian airspace, striking targets at will. The real factor was Pakistan’s superior skill, coordination, and technological edge. India was unable to respond effectively at any level.

That confidence was reflected in statements from the DG ISPR, who repeatedly indicated that only a fraction of Pakistan’s capability had been demonstrated. The message was one of depth, control, and readiness.

This conflict also overturned earlier assumptions about conventional warfare. Numbers alone, aircraft strength, troop counts, and weapons stockpiles, no longer defined outcomes in the same way. Marka e Haq reshaped those assumptions entirely. It challenged long held beliefs about strategic superiority and exposed the limits of conventional advantage.

Its impact extended beyond the region. It signaled a shift in how modern military power is perceived, where technological integration and precision matter more than scale alone. The world took notice. Even political voices abroad acknowledged the significance of the moment, reflecting a broader shift in perception.

Within the country, the moment was marked by unity and resolve. Public morale surged, and scenes of collective confidence became part of the national response. It remains one of the defining episodes in recent history, not only for its military outcome but for how it altered perceptions of modern warfare itself.

Marka e Haq stands as a moment that brought honor to Pakistan’s armed forces and dignity to the nation as a whole. It is a moment that calls for gratitude, gratitude towards the armed forces for their service and sacrifice, and gratitude towards Allah Almighty for His mercy and support.

The writer is a lawyer and author based in Islamabad. He tweets @m_asifmahmood

Filed Under: Op-Ed Tagged With: Calculus, strategic

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