Climate change refers to a shift in temperature and weather patterns across the Earth or within a specific area. Natural factors such as volcanic activity, solar variations, and ocean wave cycles can cause climate change. However, human activities since the 1800s-particularly the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas)-have become the most prominent drivers of climate change. These activities release greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, trapping heat and raising global temperatures.
According to NOVA, NASA, and UN reports, global temperatures have increased by about 1.5 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century, with the last decade being particularly significant. Rapidly melting glaciers and ice sheets, along with heat waves, hurricanes, floods, and droughts, are consequences of human damage to Mother Nature. As a result, food and water scarcity, health risks, and population displacement are increasing worldwide.
Floods in Pakistan
Climate change is rapidly altering the hydrology of the Indus River Basin-accelerating glacier retreat, shifting precipitation patterns, causing frequent cloudbursts, and increasing the frequency of floods and droughts. Due to climate change, Pakistan has been severely affected since 2010 by repeated floods during the monsoon season (and sometimes toward its end).
These floods have become a regular feature, causing devastating losses of life, property, and crops. Flash floods have also placed significant pressure on the operational capacity of Pakistan’s dams, barrages, and canal network, which is one of the largest and most complex irrigation systems in the world.
Crux of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)
The Indus Waters Treaty divided the six rivers of the Indus Basin between Pakistan and India.
The writer is a retired government officer from the Ministry of Defence and currently working as a GIS Consultant.
The western rivers-Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab-were allocated to Pakistan, while India was permitted to use their waters for electricity generation through run-of-the-river projects without altering the downstream flow.
The eastern rivers-Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej-were allocated entirely to India, giving it full rights to utilize their waters.
The distribution of water was based on historical flow patterns. The treaty also requires both countries to share hydrological and meteorological data to facilitate timely flood-related planning and mitigation.
However, an important question arises: if climate change alters water flows in the six rivers and affects Pakistan’s water availability, why has Indian media begun advocating for renegotiation of the treaty?
Despite underlying motives, this approach has been openly framed in India as the Indian Water Doctrine. On 25 April 2025, India reportedly placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance and began constructing several small hydroelectric dams on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers to establish cascading control over water flows. Additionally, India has initiated projects to widen and construct new canals from the Chenab River, actions that Pakistan argues violate the treaty and aim to use water as a strategic tool.
India appears to be systematically creating conditions that could pressure Pakistan into renegotiating the treaty. In 2003 and 2016, the state assembly of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir passed resolutions calling for the abrogation of the treaty, claiming it failed to meet the region’s water needs. Subsequently, in 2023 and 2024, the Indian government officially wrote to Pakistan proposing a review of the treaty.
Pitfalls in Re-negotiating the Indus Waters Treaty
Since 2003, India has emphasized the need to renegotiate the Indus Waters Treaty, citing increasing water demands in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and the need to irrigate areas of Rajasthan using water from the western rivers, particularly the Chenab. Indian media often argues that when the treaty was signed in 1960, climate conditions and river flows were relatively predictable. Today, however, irregular rainfall and extreme floods are presented as reasons to revise the agreement in line with India’s current requirements. At the same time, critics argue that the Indian Water Doctrine seeks to establish greater control over the rivers of the Indus Basin. From Pakistan’s perspective, this could weaken its economy and strategic stability by restricting water flows.
Another concern is that climate change narratives could be used to justify increased upstream infrastructure on western rivers. The negotiating strategy of Indian officials and the role of the World Bank during the original treaty negotiations are described in the book by the Indian chief negotiator Niranjan Das Gulhati, “Indus Waters Treaty – An Exercise in International Mediation” (1972).
During any period in which the treaty remains suspended or contested, India may accelerate the construction of run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects with larger reservoirs and new canal systems on the Chenab and Jhelum. Such projects could later be presented as established infrastructure to be legalized during renegotiation.
A historical precedent often cited is that Bhakra Dam (construction began in 1948 on the Sutlej River) and Pong Dam (construction began in 1955 on the Beas River) were later accommodated within the framework of the Indus Waters Treaty when it was signed in 1960.
Key Takeaway
Although the Indus Waters Treaty was signed on 19 September 1960, climate change is now significantly influencing water accumulation and discharge within the Indus River system.
Pakistan’s policymakers and water experts must carefully examine India’s stated rationale for renegotiation, particularly in light of the Indian Water Doctrine frequently discussed in Indian media. This is a critical issue that requires thorough debate and strategic evaluation before entering any negotiations, as Pakistan’s future water security depends heavily on the flow of rivers within the Indus Basin.
About the Author
The writer is a retired government officer from the Ministry of Defence and currently working as a GIS Consultant.