China has expressed strong condemnation of Israeli-US strikes on Iran but will prioritize energy security and diplomatic relations over direct military support, analysts say, despite the attacks affecting its oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz. Strategic stockpiles and careful planning allow Beijing to endure short-term supply disruptions while maintaining its broader foreign policy goals.
Experts note that China’s upcoming high-stakes summit with US President Donald Trump on March 31 reinforces its caution, as any military involvement could risk confrontation with Washington and undermine vital economic interests in the Gulf region. China views Iran as a strategic partner rather than a military ally, limiting its support to rhetoric and diplomatic engagement.
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Beijing has strengthened its Middle East diplomacy in recent years, including brokering a 2023 Iran-Saudi reconciliation deal and integrating Tehran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation alongside Moscow. These moves balance regional influence while protecting energy access, as Iran accounted for 1.4 million barrels per day of China’s crude imports in 2025, forming part of 57 percent sourced from the Middle East.
Despite reliance on foreign oil, China has prepared for disruptions by maintaining approximately 1.2 billion barrels of onshore crude reserves, equivalent to 115 days of seaborne imports. Analysts say these stockpiles provide a substantial buffer, allowing China and its refiners to manage temporary shortages and price spikes caused by regional conflict.
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Chinese officials have emphasized halting military escalation and preventing conflict spillover, with Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning noting that one Chinese citizen was killed in Tehran. However, Beijing’s energy dependence and reluctance to antagonize the United States make concrete military support to Iran highly unlikely.
Analysts also predict that Russia may benefit from Middle East supply disruptions, as its crude could substitute for halted flows to China and India. Overall, China’s approach remains focused on ensuring uninterrupted energy supply while maintaining diplomatic balance and avoiding entanglement in regional hostilities.