The US-Iranian standoff has reached the end of the road. Last week’s negotiations failed to impress the Trump administration. In concert with Israel, the US began what may be an extended military campaign against a wide range of Iranian targets.
Ironically, President Trump faced a modern-day equivalent of the famous Gordian knot that Alexander the Great cut with a swift stroke of his sword. Trump must believe his sword to sever the impasse with Iran has been forged by the US military.
Operation Epic Fury may prove to be unfortunately named. Operation Urgent Fury in October 1983 was meant to save US students in Grenada who turned out not to be in danger. Like that operation, this administration’s strategy has questionable aims. The intention is to fracture the regime’s leadership, enabling Iranians to regain control of the country. But suppose that fails? Then what? The fallback position is to coerce Iran’s new leadership to return to the bargaining table.
But even with the confirmed killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, achieving either outcome is uncertain.
Last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer did not dislodge Tehran’s leadership. Cautions reportedly made by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine about the negative consequences of any attack were quickly rejected by the White House. And Vice President JD Vance telegraphed that this operation will not lead to a wider war.
The strikes against Iran have unleashed the “fog and friction” of war, as Carl von Clausewitz defined it, as well as the unpredictable influence of good and bad luck.
Iran’s leadership, as well as its command-and-control networks and key military facilities, are obvious targets. Yet the administration has not explained what is to be achieved and why negotiations were abandoned. Iran publicly stated it would never acquire nuclear weapons – a pledge few Americans believe – even though, in Islam, these weapons are considered forbidden.
The question of “what next?” from the second Iraq War has not been answered. Congress should consider how deeply this question was addressed regarding Iran. Only the administration knows.
Clearly, our attack is an act of war, even though Operation Epic Fury was declared to be the start of a “military operation.” If the law is to be observed, the War Powers Act must come into force. The U.S. and Israel have launched ongoing strikes, and on Sunday, U.S Central Command officials confirmed that three troops were killed during these actions against Iran and that five more were “seriously wounded.” The obvious counter-responses by Iran have received considerable media attention. Ballistic missile attacks against the Gulf States and Israel have already been launched. Overseas terrorist cells and cyberattacks may yet be launched. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz and destruction of the Arab Gulf states’ petrochemical infrastructure could come next.
Here is a trick question: What is the most precious resource in the Gulf, and why has its significance not received the attention it deserves? The answer is water.
While billions of gallons of oil exist under the desert sands, the same does not apply to water. Interestingly, because of colossal mismanagement and incompetence, Iranians also face a water crisis.
The Gulf has only a few days of water reserves. By some estimates, more than 90 per cent of water comes from desalination. Those infrastructures are extremely vulnerable to disruption and destruction. And the Gulf states have no alternative. When I was at graduate school some 50 years ago, we studied water as a precious resource and source of conflict. It is no secret. Would Iran be reckless enough to target this invaluable infrastructure?
Suppose leaders who survived the attacks, such as the chairman of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, are indeed clever. Suppose Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states were threatened by Iran that if they did not press Trump to halt the attacks, the water infrastructure would become targets. The ploy would be to leverage the Saudis and others to pressure the U.S. to halt the attacks.
This presents another Gordian knot. The reasons for the revolts and protests by the public arose from dire economic conditions. Beyond water, Iranians face critical food inflation. No matter who emerges to lead in Iran, how will these ghastly economic and resource crises be addressed? There are no answers. Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Nicolas Maduro, showcased American military prowess. Both were limited and carefully planned. The strikes against Iran have unleashed the “fog and friction” of war, as Carl von Clausewitz defined it, as well as the unpredictable influence of good and bad luck.
No matter how powerful the U.S. military may be, can it sever the Iranian Gordian knot? And, if not, will it then declare victory and leave?
The writer is a senior advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council and a published author. He can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.