Ramadan has already begun across Pakistan, and with it has returned a familiar anxiety that has little to do with fasting and everything to do with affordability. Markets are crowded, fruit vendors are busy, grocery stores are full, yet beneath the visible activity lies a quiet concern shared by millions of households: why does Ramadan feel more expensive every single year? Official figures suggest inflation is under control. The latest data for early 2026 places headline inflation at around six per cent year?on?year, far lower than the double?digit peaks of previous years. Food inflation, according to consumer price indices, appears moderate compared to recent history. On paper, the situation seems stable. But at the grocery counter, stability feels distant.
The difference between statistics and lived experience becomes most visible during Ramadan because food consumption patterns intensify. Sehri and Iftar require daily preparation. Families aim to maintain dignity and generosity during the holy month. Even lower?income households stretch their budgets to serve decent meals. When millions of families simultaneously increase purchases of flour, oil, sugar, milk, fruits, lentils, and poultry, markets respond. Demand surges are predictable. Yet every year, the same predictable surge results in noticeable price increases, reinforcing the perception that Ramadan itself has become costlier.
Consider a basic Ramadan basket for a modest middle?income household of five. It includes a twenty?kilogram bag of wheat flour, five kilograms of sugar, five litres of cooking oil, roughly thirty litres of milk over the month, seasonal fruits, lentils, gram flour for pakoras, eggs, chicken for selected meals, and the additional gas and electricity usage required for extended cooking hours. In the early part of the decade, such a basket could be managed for under twenty thousand rupees. Today, in 2026, that same basket can easily exceed fifty thousand rupees, depending on the city and brand choice. Wheat flour is selling for nearly three thousand rupees per bag in many markets. Cooking oil approaches six hundred rupees per litre. Sugar remains around one hundred fifty rupees per kilogram. Fresh milk prices hover close to two hundred rupees per litre in urban areas. Chicken rates fluctuate but frequently remain above five hundred rupees per kilogram.
These are not marginal increases; they reflect a structural reset in price levels over the past few years. When inflation moderates, it does not mean prices return to previous levels. It simply means the pace of increase slows. A decline from fifteen per cent inflation to six per cent does not reduce grocery bills. It only slows the speed at which they rise further. Households, however, measure affordability in absolute terms, not percentages. If flour that once cost eight hundred rupees now costs nearly three thousand, a slower rate of increase offers little psychological comfort.
Ramadan packages announced by provincial authorities aim to soften the impact through subsidised flour, discounted stalls, and temporary price caps.
Energy costs compound the burden. Ramadan often coincides with rising temperatures. Longer hours of kitchen use increase electricity consumption. Although fuel adjustment charges may fluctuate monthly, the structure of tariffs remains heavy. A household that once paid eight thousand rupees in utilities may now face bills two or three times that amount, even with similar consumption patterns. Gas tariffs have also adjusted upward in recent years, raising cooking costs indirectly embedded in food production and directly in household expenditure.
Why does this pattern repeat every year despite government announcements of Ramadan relief packages? The answer lies partly in market structure. Pakistan’s food supply chains remain fragmented. Multiple intermediaries operate between farmers and consumers. Limited cold storage facilities and inefficient logistics amplify seasonal volatility. When demand rises sharply and monitoring mechanisms lag behind, traders anticipate higher margins. Price expectations adjust before enforcement begins. By the time administrative teams visit markets, the new price level is already embedded.
Another factor is the dominance of informal trading channels. A significant portion of essential commodity transactions occurs outside fully documented systems. Without real?time data transparency, detecting speculative behaviour becomes difficult. Price control measures often rely on periodic inspections rather than continuous digital monitoring. In predictable seasonal peaks such as Ramadan, this reactive approach allows prices to move upward with limited immediate resistance.
There is also the cumulative effect of currency depreciation over the past several years. Even domestically produced goods depend on imported inputs, including packaging materials, machinery parts, fertiliser, and fuel. When the rupee weakens, these costs rise. Although the exchange rate may appear stable in recent months, the earlier depreciation permanently shifted cost structures upward. That legacy remains embedded in today’s retail prices.
For salaried middle?class families, the squeeze extends beyond groceries. Withholding taxes on income, advance taxes embedded in electricity bills, fuel levies incorporated into transport costs, and general sales tax on packaged goods all reduce disposable income. School fees and rent often adjust annually, independent of current inflation moderation. Income increments, however, rarely match cumulative price increases of the past three years. As a result, even if inflation slows, real purchasing power does not fully recover.
Lower?income households experience an even sharper impact. Food accounts for a majority share of their total expenditure. They lack savings buffers or inflation?linked income adjustments. When flour or oil prices increase, dietary choices narrow. Protein intake declines. Quantities shrink. Ramadan heightens visibility of this strain because expectations of communal meals and hospitality intensify financial pressure. Ramadan packages announced by provincial authorities aim to soften the impact through subsidised flour, discounted stalls, and temporary price caps. These measures provide short?term relief and political reassurance. However, they do not address structural inefficiencies in supply chains, energy pricing distortions, or weak competition enforcement. Once the month ends, underlying cost pressures remain intact.
The psychological dimension should not be underestimated. Consumers remember last year’s prices and compare them instinctively with current figures. Even if the percentage increase this year is smaller, the absolute jump from several years ago shapes perception. Each Ramadan becomes a reference point. When families observe that their rupee buys less food than it did in prior years, the feeling of decline deepens regardless of official statistics. There is also the behavioural response of precautionary buying. Rumours of shortages encourage households to purchase in bulk before Ramadan begins. Such behaviour itself increases short?term demand and contributes to price pressure. In markets where storage capacity and regulatory oversight are limited, this feedback loop can intensify volatility.
Ultimately, the recurring sense that Ramadan is becoming more expensive reflects broader economic challenges. Inflation moderation alone cannot restore affordability if income growth remains weak, indirect taxation remains heavy, and structural supply bottlenecks persist. Sustainable relief requires more than seasonal crackdowns. It demands investment in agricultural productivity, improved logistics networks, transparent digital price reporting systems, and stronger enforcement of competition laws in essential commodities. Ramadan is a month centred on discipline, reflection, and generosity. Charity increases, community kitchens expand, and acts of kindness multiply. Yet the fact that families enter this sacred period worried about grocery bills signals a disconnect between economic management and lived experience. When price stability is defined purely through statistical indicators without equal attention to purchasing power and structural reform, households continue to feel vulnerable.
The lesson is not that inflation data is incorrect, but that moderation in rates does not automatically translate into comfort at the household level. Price levels remain elevated. Income recovery is gradual. Structural inefficiencies persist. Until these deeper issues are addressed, Ramadan will continue to feel heavier on the wallet even if charts appear calmer. At the grocery counter, economics becomes personal. For millions across Pakistan this month, the true measure of stability is not a percentage printed in a report but the simple question asked while filling a shopping basket: Can we afford this comfortably? Until that answer becomes consistently reassuring, Ramadan will continue to feel more expensive each passing year.
The writer is a financial expert and can be reached at jawadsaleem.1982@ gmail.com. He tweets @JawadSaleem1982