Global sugar consumption is slowing, with declines in the United States and Western Europe and stagnation in other regions, as higher taxes on sugary drinks and the expanding use of weight-loss drugs reduce demand, analysts and industry experts say.
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In the US, sugar consumption has dropped 4.4% over the last two years, while Western Europe has seen a 6.7% decline, according to the International Sugar Organisation. These trends have already led to sugar factory closures in both regions and driven sugar prices down to roughly five-year lows.
The slowdown follows decades of steady growth, which had averaged about 2% annually and roughly doubled global sugar consumption over the past 50 years. Eder Vieito, CEO of analysts Green Pool, told Reuters that while multiple factors contribute to the decline, weight-loss drugs are a significant driver.
The long-held Wall Street expectation that the global market for obesity drugs would reach $150 billion in the next decade is looking a lot less certain with US prices falling for GLP-1 treatments from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly https://t.co/fmsRuFbRO5 pic.twitter.com/LP72e1SxkP
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 2, 2026
Drugs in the GLP-1 class, such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, can reduce calorie intake by 16% to 39% and decrease cravings for sweet and high-fat foods, said Annie Denny, Director General of the World Sugar Research Organisation. Roughly one in eight US adults have taken GLP-1 drugs, though global usage remains under 1%. Lower prices and patent expirations are expected to boost uptake in countries including Brazil, China, India, and Turkey.
Taxes on sugary drinks have also contributed to reduced sugar intake, prompting manufacturers to reformulate products in many countries, including the UK, Mexico, and South Africa. Stephen Geldart, head of analysis at Czarnikow, said these taxes have been an effective anti-obesity measure and a factor in the slowdown of sugar demand in Europe over the last decade.
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While population growth in Asia and Africa continues to support rising sugar consumption in those regions, global demand growth is forecast at only 0.5% for the 2026/27 season, a historically low figure that experts describe as the “new normal.” Analysts warn that decades of sustained global sugar growth may now have plateaued.