No one can stop the historical trend toward national reunification, President Xi Jinping said. Since 1949, China has remained committed to reunification, but only through peaceful means. The reunification policy is neither fictional nor a colonial aspiration; it is grounded in historical evidence and seeks to correct the injustices and wrongdoings of aggressors. According to historical records, Taiwan has always been an integral part of China. It was only separated from China by fascist forces during the century of humiliation, when China was weak. However, the dynamics have changed; China is a powerful force across the board. It has the will and capability to back it with force, but it still adheres to a policy of peaceful reunification.
Despite a clear policy, historical evidence, and a strong commitment to reunification, some forces are trying to create obstacles or complicate the process. Over the past few years, the USA and its allies have been relentlessly working to support Taiwan’s separatist forces. The process accelerated with the visit of Ms Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, to Taiwan in 2022. The USA believed that, through Ms Pelosi’s visit, it was helping Taiwan, supporting the separatists, and deterring China’s resolve by showing the strength of the USA. The separatists considered it a major victory and warmly welcomed and celebrated Ms Pelosi’s visit. The visit was carefully crafted to antagonise China and provoke an irrational response.
However, Ms Pelosi and the separatists were wrong. Contrary to expectations, China handled the situation calmly and wisely, showing no signs of panic or a knee-jerk reaction. Instead, China analysed the situation, the opponents’ objectives, the future implications, and the policy choices needed to counter. The analysis concluded that the visit was a clear deviation, rather than a violation, of the One China principle. Despite strong objections from China, the visit shows that the USA’s commitment to the One China policy is shaky and cannot be trusted. Thus, the USA can change its stance at any time according to its convenience and interests. Moreover, China’s commitment to peaceful coexistence and adherence to the philosophy of dialogue and development to resolve issues has been seen as a sign of weakness. The USA and the West interpret this as an opening to interfere in China’s internal affairs and undermine China’s sovereignty. These factors further strengthened China’s resolve for the peaceful reunification of Taiwan.
China asked the USA to respect and adhere to the One China Principle and correct its mistake. Unfortunately, the USA, Japan, and other Western countries refused to learn and underestimated China’s resolve and capabilities to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Thus, instead of correcting its mistake and returning to the One-China policy, the USA, a few days ago, approved a massive sale of weapons of mass destruction to Taiwan’s separatist forces. This is yet another clear violation of the One-China policy. Moreover, the US has also encouraged Japan to enter the Taiwan issue. Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi’s statement and the installation of SAM missiles on Yonaguni Island have threatened peace and stability in the region.
Many experts believe that US and Western policies and actions are pushing China to redefine the timeline for reunification and to accelerate reunification efforts.
These circumstances prompted China to reconsider, redesign, and recalibrate its policies and actions, kick-starting an irreversible process of change. The analysis of the period between 2022 and 2025 indicates that China is refining its policies and strategies at multiple levels.
First, China began to refine the contours of its security policy regarding Taiwan. China began to redesign the People’s Liberation Army’s engagement in the Taiwan Strait. Since then, the PLA’s readiness to act in the Taiwan Strait has been enhanced and modernised. The launch of the Fujian carrier further strengthens the PLA and enhances its capacity to act effectively in any situation. Second, China began taking practical steps to demonstrate its resolve and capability for reunification. Since 2022, China has conducted a series of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. The most recent exercise took place in late December 2025, which was the most comprehensive and multidimensional, with the largest deployment of forces. China deployed units from all its forces and even conducted live-fire drills. The exercise was conducted in the north, southwest, southeast, and east of Taiwan’s main island. China deployed destroyers, frigates, fighter planes, bombers, drones, and long-range missiles. China effectively demonstrated how to seize the airspace, block ports, and cut Taiwan off from the world. China also demonstrated its A2/AD (anti-access, aerial denial) capabilities, seizing air control, targeting key infrastructure and targets, and blocking Taiwan’s main ports. It would be crucial to cut Taiwan’s supply lines and assistance from its allies.
Third, China began taking punitive measures to impose costs on supporters of Taiwan’s separatist forces. For example, after the US announced a US$11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, China imposed sanctions on companies and their executives. Fourth, China has become assertive and does not allow anyone to interfere in its internal affairs. For example, after the Japanese Prime Minister’s statement on Taiwan, China issued a strong rebuttal. Fifth, China began to realise that it needs to improve its communication policy. In the modern world, communication is as vital as the military, economic, or diplomatic powers. Therefore, it has started to refine its communication policy. However, a lot needed to be done on this front.
From the discussion above, we can draw a few conclusions. First, the visit kick-started irreversible changes. Second, the actions of the West and the USA also provided China with legal, political, and security justifications to reconsider its policies and redraw its lines of action. Third, China did not escalate or engage in conflict after Ms Pelosi’s visit. Instead, it used the occasion to analyse Taiwan issues in light of new dynamics. Fourth, China is preparing for reunification by applying the Chinese philosophy of stepwise preparation. For example, China began conducting military exercises after 2022 and has been building up step by step, with the sixth exercise being the most comprehensive. China showed the world its technology and capabilities, and what it can do if anyone tries to interfere.
Fifth, the visit, arms sales, and support from the USA and its allies for Taiwan have strengthened China’s resolve for reunification. China is determined and will not care who is supporting Taiwan’s separatists.
In conclusion, many experts believe that US and Western policies and actions are pushing China to redefine the timeline for reunification and to accelerate reunification efforts. Therefore, they expect 2026 to be the year of Taiwan’s reunification and view it as the most appropriate time. They think the delay will increase costs and complicate unification. As the USA has enhanced the supply of arms, Japan is trying to become nuclear, and the USA is also pushing other regional countries to engage in conflict with China, etc. However, we cannot confirm it, as official statements and government documents show no sign of such urgency for reunification. But the experts still insist on it.
In this context, it is advised that no one should interfere in Taiwan and jeopardise regional and global peace and development. China will not tolerate or forgive any such attempt. China has economic, diplomatic, and military means to deter any such effort and impose a heavy price on such forces or countries.
The writer is COO Zalmi Foundation