Hegemonic and imperialist Japan in the late 19th and early 20th centuries posed many challenges to China. In the 19th century, it drew China into various conflicts. However, the occupation of Taiwan in 1895 completely changed the situation. Japan used Taiwan as a base to attack China and target civilians, leading to many casualties. The Imperial Japanese army waged a full-scale war against ordinary Chinese citizens, committing numerous atrocities and employing various violent methods against the people in the 1930s. Historical records show that Japan killed nearly 15 million Chinese, most of whom were civilians. Japan also destroyed China’s industrial and agricultural infrastructure, crippling its production foundation. Recently, China released documents detailing the atrocities carried out by the Japanese army. These records reveal that Japan established a special unit, 731, dedicated to germ warfare. Japan caused death through pain and suffering. Furthermore, the Japanese army raped and enslaved Chinese women, forcing them into sex slavery.
Japan continued to commit crimes against humanity and occupied Taiwan until the end of World War II in 1945. It was in no rush to leave Taiwan but felt it had no options. However, Japan again played a dirty trick by handing over Taiwan to the Republic of China instead of the People’s Republic of China. This move planted a seed of conflict in the region, and Japan kept it as an option to play its dirty politics.
After a pause, Japan is back with dirty politics and has started to interfere in Taiwan, which is an internal matter of China. This is clear from the recent statement by Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi on Taiwan. She said that an attack on Taiwan could trigger the deployment of Japan’s self-defence forces. This statement contradicts international norms and values; Taiwan is an internal matter of China. No country has the right to interfere in China’s internal affairs. China has the right and capability to resolve its internal issues. As a result, China strongly rebutted the Japanese Prime Minister’s statement, warning that anyone attempting to interfere in its internal affairs will face consequences.
China has never posed a threat to the security of any country, including Japan.
This is not a sudden move or unexpected policy. Japan had been preparing for this for a long time and was waiting for the right moment to reveal its true ambitions. It couldn’t do so openly because, after World War II, Japan was prohibited from developing offensive military capabilities and weapons. The USA’s anti-China and China-threat policies allowed Japan to reveal its intentions. It cleverly used China’s rise as an excuse to bypass post-war agreement restrictions. Under new dynamics, the USA, once opposed to Japan’s military expansion, has become a driving force behind Japan’s military development by framing China’s rise as a threat. Japan saw this as an opportunity to pursue its imperial ambitions. It was pleasing that US policies reflected Japan’s hidden desire to regain hegemonic status.
Thus, Japan began aligning with these policies and restructuring its security and military framework. In 2013, Japan made a significant step forward by expanding its security and national defence policies and their scope, and by developing the National Security Strategy (NSS). Simultaneously, Japan formulated the National Defence Strategy (NDS) and the Defence Buildup Program (DBP). The NSS, NDS, and DBP play a leading and decisive role in shaping Japan’s modern security and defence framework.
In an effort to further expand security and defence frameworks and scope, Japan revised its NSS in December 2022, making it more assertive. China was labelled a major challenge and later on upgraded to a threat. Under this policy change, Japan is significantly investing in its military buildup. For example, in 2024, Japan allocated nearly US$50 billion and plans to allocate about US$63 billion for the fiscal year 2026. The ultimate goal is to make military spending 2% of GDP by 2027.
A deep dive into defence expenditure shows that Japan allocated US$6 billion for stand-off defence to improve its capabilities to fight offensive wars, including long-range precision missiles such as the Tomahawk cruise missile. It will purchase 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles worth US$2.35 billion, with a range of 1,600 kilometres from the USA through 2027. Additionally, Japan will spend US$3 billion on developing a missile defence system, including the acquisition of interceptors and a mobile reconnaissance radar.
Japan plans to acquire numerous surface ship-launched UAVs, small ship-based UAVs, and small multi-role USVs to bolster the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force. Simultaneously, the Japanese navy is developing a new submarine with an $816 million investment, purchasing new submarine-launched missiles, and spending $713.9 million on constructing a new multi-role frigate.
On the other hand, Japan is busy building alliances by using the China threat as an excuse. Fumio Kishida, Japan’s Prime Minister, travelled to Europe and the USA to sign new agreements and strengthen the existing ones. First, he signed an agreement with the UK for the deployment of troops on each other’s soil, joint training, and close cooperation on Asia-Pacific policy, among others. Second, he renewed commitments to broadening cooperation between the USA and Japan. Japan already hosts 54000 American soldiers and pays substantial fees for their presence. Now, both nations plan to deepen cooperation in military matters, cybersecurity, and outer space, among others. The USA will supply Japan with more anti-ship missiles. In 2025, Japan and the USA established the Japan Joint Operation Command (JJOC). The JJOC will focus on joint contingency planning, real-time situational awareness, and quick decision-making. Recently, they also signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement with the Philippines.
At the multilateral level, Japan is a permanent member of the QUAD, an alliance aimed at countering China. It collaborates with the USA, Australia, and India to challenge Chinese interests and contain China. Japan has also joined the UK and Italy in the Global Combat Air Program, which focuses on developing stealth fighters. Most notably, Japan signed an Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP) agreement with NATO.
The above discussion clearly shows that Japan is expanding its military and offensive capabilities, citing the threat from China. However, a detailed analysis of ground realities and political situations suggests otherwise. First, China has never posed a threat to the security of any country, including Japan. Even though Japan committed crimes against humanity and war crimes in China, China chose to build a positive relationship. China’s policy of openness and peaceful coexistence has helped Japan become a major trading partner. Consequently, China is now Japan’s biggest trading partner.
Second, Japan is taking these actions to revive its imperialist and hegemonic ambitions to control the region, undermine, and contain China.
In conclusion, despite a painful history, China is working to improve its relationship with Japan. Unfortunately, Japan is not reciprocating and is moving in the opposite direction. The USA’s influence and its own ambitions to revive a hegemonic and imperialist state are shaping its policies and actions. It seems Japan wants to repeat the history in China with backing from the USA, NATO, and allies. However, Japan should be mindful that modern China under President Xi is entirely different from the past. Today, China is strong in every aspect, and Japan, along with its alliances, cannot match China. Therefore, the best choice is to cooperate, live peacefully, and avoid interfering in China’s internal affairs.
The writer is COO Zalmi Foundation