The last couple of weeks have been pretty rough for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Every passing day throws a new challenge for him with another big issue consuming media and public attention. The saga over the Panama Papers verdict was far from over when the Indian businessman Sajjan Jindal’s meeting with the prime minister made headlines, followed by the controversial tweet by DG ISPR, Army’s public relations wing, rejecting the government’s report on Dawn Leaks. With each issue, an entire machinery springs into action, relying on social media and selected anchors of television news channels to build an anti-Nawaz narrative. On the political front, this narrative is propagated by the likes of Imran Khan, Sheikh Rasheed, and Aitzaz Ahsan, either as means to exert pressure on the ruling party for political gains, or to attract support from the powerful deep state. Lately, the PPP has also joined the bandwagon.
This growing anti-government activity will seem random and haphazard until it is tied to the upcoming general elections in 2018. If held on time, the 2018 polls will mark a rare milestone in the democratic history of the country, as two consecutive elected governments will have completed their full terms — PPP’s from 2008 to 2013 and PML-N’s from 2013 to 2018. This will set a difficult-to-break precedent, turning the five-year electoral cycle from an exception to the norm. Such an eventuality should make some elements within the establishment nervous. Stable elected governments — assured of completing their mandated terms — could soon start asking for more, becoming comfortable enough to challenge the status quo on defence, external affairs, and internal security policies. Although such a challenge seems far-fetched today, stable civilian governments are likely to contend for influence in these matters in a not-too-distant future. Even in the current scenario where the balance of power clearly sits with the military, every elected government has tried to meddle in such affairs, only to give up after retaliation from the establishment quarters. Then President Asif Ali Zardari’s bid to bring the ISI under the interior ministry and the current government’s initial interest in normalising ties with India are two such examples in recent years. It is only a matter of time that a more organised and self-confident elected government will go one-step further to exercise its constitutional powers.
These elements also make effective use of a natural support base within the country’s urban educated middle and upper-middle classes. Being too few in numbers to impact politics through direct elections, the educated middle class feels alienated from the political system, as the poor masses continue to vote for the landed and business elite. The urban middle-class, as a result, relies on the military’s help to achieve its objectives such as the maintenance of law and order in urban areas, reduction of political corruption, provision of respectable housing, and economic development. Although in minority, this group dominates what the French sociologist Christophe Guilluy calls the “cultural institutions” of the nation, encompassing universities, television channels, bureaucracy, judiciary, and corporations. Thus, it forms the cultural leadership of the country, setting moral and ethical boundaries, constructing a national narrative, and influencing other members of the society.
Seen from this perspective, it becomes apparent why the opinion of the two dissenting judges in the Panama Papers verdict gets a lot more attention than that of the three judges who wrote the final judgement. Or, why Sajjan Jindal’s meeting with the prime minister was projected as a betrayal to the nation, rather than as a useful back channel outreach opportunity with India. If Cyril Almeida’s report was false, it did not merit attention, and if it was true, it signalled a positive change in the security mindset distancing itself from religious extremists. The report has been used to weaken the prime minister, leading to the ouster of his close aides, Pervez Rasheed and Tarek Fatmi. Another interesting aspect of narratives on the above-mentioned issues is that these feature systematic vilification of Maryam Nawaz, ostensibly to dent her position as the heir apparent to her father. Indeed, these are targeted and politically motivated campaigns rather than movements motivated by sense of justice or patriotism.
Since the next election is fast approaching, every power player of the country is actively seeking to destabilise the elected government and create more space for itself. The idea is to keep the PML-N perpetually entangled in controversies, undermining its chances in the elections. Mr Sharif is likely to remain under pressure, facing one controversy after another propagated through media, opposition parties, and the permanent state, until the upcoming elections. Calls for his resignation will continue in electoral rallies disguised as anti-Nawaz processions, while Maryam Nawaz will face a lot more heat as she takes control over the party’s affairs. Although this pressure will have negligible impact on election results, a morally questionable Nawaz Sharif would be more amenable at the negotiation table than a powerful prime minister elected for a second consecutive term. A narrative of perpetual instability, thus, would dominate the national discourse in the coming year.
The writer is a lecturer of Public Policy and Administration at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He can be reached at [email protected]. His Twitter handle is @RamblingSufi