The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted higher-than-normal rainfall near the Pakistan-India border at the end of September, despite the monsoon season ending. This unusual rain may also recur in the last week of October. The FAO’s sub-seasonal climate models suggest this pattern could affect the region, potentially impacting agriculture and locust breeding.
According to the FAO report, from October 2025 to March 2026, locust breeding areas will experience varied weather. November and December are expected to be drier than usual, while January should see normal rainfall. The southern coastal areas of Iran and southwestern Pakistan might get above-average or near-normal rainfall in February and March, which could influence locust breeding sites.
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The report notes that locust breeding could continue on a small scale in October near the Pakistan-India border but is expected to stop by November. These rains may also aid locust breeding in northern coastal areas and Sudan through September and early October. Though breeding might decrease in November, it could rise again between December and March.
The FAO and global meteorological services highlight that weather patterns through spring, summer, and winter will affect locust breeding in these regions. The report warns that unusual rainfall at the Pakistan-India border and parts of southern Arabian Peninsula could persist into early October, while most areas may experience drought in October and November due to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole.