Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 3.2% on a year-on-year basis in June 2025, a reading lower than that of May 2025, when it stood at 3.5%, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Tuesday.
On month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.2% in June 2025, as compared to a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month and an increase of 0.5% in June 2024.
CPI inflation average during FY25 stood at 4.49% as compared to 23.41% in FY24.
Inflation in Pakistan has been a significant and persistent economic challenge, particularly in recent years. In May 2023, the CPI inflation rate hit a record high of 38%. However, it has been on a downward trajectory since then.
The CPI reading is in line with the government’s expectations. The Finance Ministry in its monthly economic report expected inflation to ease to a range between 3-4% in June.
“On the external front, higher remittances and exports will continue to keep the current account in surplus for FY 2025,” read the monthly outlook.
Earlier, the Economic Survey 2024-25 noted that inflation is projected to remain within the range of 4.5-5% during FY25, supported by a sharp decline in the prices of perishable food items and adequate stocks of key non-perishable commodities.
Meanwhile, the latest CPI reading was also in line with the projections made by several brokerage houses.
JS Global projected Pakistan’s headline inflation to lower to 3.1% in June.
“Following a 3.5% YoY reading in May 2025, the CPI is expected to be at 3.1% YoY in June 2025. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalised price trends,” said JS Global.
Meanwhile, Insight Securities, another brokerage house, expected headline inflation to clock in at 3.2% in June.
Urban, rural inflation
The PBS said CPI inflation urban decreased to 3% on year-on-year basis in June 2025, as compared to 3.5% of the previous month and 14.9% in June 2024.
On month-on-month basis, it remained stable at 0.1% in June 2025, as compared to 0.1% in the previous month and 0.6% in June 2024.
CPI inflation rural increased by 3.6% on year-on-year basis in June 2025, as compared to an increase of 3.4% in the previous month and 9.3% in June 2024.
On month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.5% in June 2025, as compared to a decrease of 0.5% in the previous month and an increase of 0.3% in June 2024.