The federal government has failed to meet its economic growth target for the fiscal year 2024–25, with the National Economic Survey scheduled to be released tomorrow. According to key findings revealed in advance, Pakistan missed its GDP growth target of 3.6%, achieving only 2.7%. Both the agriculture and services sectors also underperformed, falling short of their projected goals.
Agricultural growth was recorded at just 0.6% against the 2% target, while the services sector grew by 2.9% instead of the planned 4.1%. In contrast, the industrial sector exceeded expectations, recording a 4.8% growth versus a 4.4% target. However, overall investment and private sector investment both remained slightly below targets, with total investment at 13.8% and private investment at 9.1%.
The document highlights several positive indicators. National savings surpassed expectations at 14.1% compared to the 13.3% target. Inflation was brought under control, averaging just 5%, well below the 12% target. In the first nine months of the fiscal year, total expenditures rose by 19.4%, while revenue saw a significant 36.7% increase. Development spending also rose by 32.6%, and the budget deficit was reduced by 23.9%.
Remittances, exports, and imports all saw notable increases. From July 2024 to April 2025, remittances surged by 30.9%, reaching $31.21 billion. Exports grew by 6.8%, while imports rose by 11.8%, totaling $48.62 billion. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) declined slightly by 2.8%, totaling $1.78 billion. Encouragingly, the current account posted a surplus of $1.88 billion, and State Bank reserves rose from $9.2 billion to $11.4 billion.
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) reported a 26.3% rise in tax revenue from July to April. Non-tax revenue increased by 69.9%. Despite these gains, FBR may still fall short of its annual revenue collection target, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability going forward.