The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a warning that this year’s monsoon season could bring above-average rainfall across Pakistan. According to a briefing presented to the Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change, there is a possibility of up to 300 millimeters of rainfall during the monsoon season, with Punjab expected to receive between 300 to 380 millimeters. The monsoon season is expected to run from July 1 to September 15, with rainfall in certain regions likely to exceed typical levels.
The meeting, chaired by Senator Sherry Rehman, provided key insights from NDMA officials, who highlighted potential weather threats and early warnings for mitigating risks. NDMA officials also noted that this year, cloud bursts (sudden, intense rain events) could occur more frequently during the monsoon.
The NDMA also informed the committee that heatwaves were expected earlier this year, with advisories issued six months in advance. The expected monsoon rains are expected to cause local flooding, particularly due to glacier meltwater, which will raise water levels in streams and rivers.
Regarding regional effects, NDMA officials revealed that Rajampur and DG Khan in southern Punjab are likely to experience higher rainfall, necessitating special attention. Similarly, northern and eastern Punjab will also witness increased rainfall, contributing to potential local flooding.
In response to Senator Naseemah Ehsan’s inquiry about the rainfall patterns and flood risks in Balochistan, NDMA officials pointed out that the population in the province, largely residing in mud houses, faces higher risks of damage from floods. Sindh is also expected to experience temperature increases of 2.5°C above average.
Further elaborating on the weather outlook, the officials stated that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) could experience 300 millimeters of rainfall compared to the usual 243 millimeters, and Azad Kashmir is also expected to witness increased rainfall. In addition, cloud bursts are expected to be more frequent, which could significantly impact vulnerable regions.
Despite the heavy rainfall forecast, NDMA emphasized that there was no immediate risk of a major flood event like the one experienced in 2022. However, localized flooding is anticipated in certain areas depending on rainfall intensity.
Finally, Senator Sherry Rehman raised concerns about the Indus Water Treaty and its impact on water availability, to which NDMA officials responded that a study on the treaty’s implications is already underway, noting that India is currently using less water from the western rivers than it is entitled to under the agreement.
This comprehensive briefing highlights the government’s preparedness to manage the challenges of the upcoming monsoon season while ensuring that local authorities are ready for the potential risks associated with heavy rainfall and flooding.