Despite hopes for a reduction in power bills, the federal government has proposed only a marginal cut in base electricity tariffs for the upcoming fiscal year 2025–26. The suggested revisions—based on seven different scenarios—indicate that electricity rates may decrease by as little as 30 paisa and at most by Rs2.25 per unit, offering no major relief to consumers.
If the exchange rate remains stable at Rs280/USD, the average base tariff could fall from Rs27 to Rs24.75 per unit. However, if the exchange rate hits Rs300, the decrease will be just 30 paisa, mainly due to lower capacity payments. The report also highlights that the average power purchase price (PPP) will remain significantly above fuel costs—ranging between Rs8.16 to Rs9.52 per unit—pushing total electricity cost to Rs34–35 per unit, excluding taxes, fees, and surcharges.
NEPRA has scheduled a public hearing on May 15 to review the tariff revision request submitted by the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA). The proposal is built on key assumptions including demand growth, hydrology conditions, fuel prices, and exchange rate fluctuations. Most of the scenarios expect electricity demand to rise by 3% to 5%, assuming stability in the exchange rate. Clean and local fuels are projected to contribute 52% to 58% of the total energy mix.
The final decision will be forwarded to the federal cabinet for approval. The Power Division is also preparing a follow-up tariff table to adjust subsidies for different consumer categories and slabs, in line with commitments already made to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The formal notification is expected to be issued by July 1, potentially leaving little room for public or commercial users to benefit from meaningful reductions in electricity bills.