The recent flare-up in tensions between Pakistan and India has once again put the spotlight on the delicate and often precarious geopolitical situation in South Asia. This new round of conflict was triggered by a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, located in Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which claimed the lives of 26 people, many of whom were tourists. India has accused Pakistan-based militants of being behind the attack, while Pakistan has strongly denied any involvement. This tragic event has reignited old hostilities between the two countries, leading to a sharp increase in military deployments along the Line of Control (LoC), with both sides exchanging accusations of violations and stirring fears of a broader confrontation. In the wake of the attack, both Pakistan and India have stepped up their military activities. India launched large-scale military exercises across the states of Rajasthan and Punjab, mobilizing thousands of troops and utilizing advanced weaponry. In a swift response, Pakistan carried out its own military drills in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions. These maneuvers included artillery bombardments and aerial surveillance operations, signaling that Pakistan is always to prepared for the worst. As the military presence along the LoC intensified, ceasefire violations surged, with each side accusing the other of provoking hostilities, further escalating the tension in an already volatile region. The situation has prompted deep concern from the international community. China, which maintains a close relationship with Pakistan, has been vocal in calling for restraint and dialogue. On May 2, 2025, Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong, met with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad to discuss the ongoing tensions. During their discussions, Jiang emphasized China’s unwavering support for Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and underscored the need for a thorough and impartial investigation into the Pahalgam attack. He also urged both countries to manage their differences responsibly and cooperate to preserve regional peace and stability. The United States, too, has called for de-escalation, warning that actions taken by both countries could spiral into a much larger conflict with serious consequences for the entire region. As the situation continues to evolve, a critical question arises: who stands to benefit from this renewed conflict? While it’s difficult to pinpoint the immediate winners, several shifts in global geopolitics suggest that some countries may find opportunities in this crisis. China’s role in the region is becoming increasingly significant. By positioning itself as both a mediator and a staunch ally of Pakistan, China strengthens its influence in South Asia, balancing the growing ties between India and the United States. A key aspect of China-Pakistan cooperation is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a major infrastructure project that is central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Despite the potential for regional instability to disrupt this crucial corridor, China’s active engagement in Pakistan allows it to protect its strategic interests and investments. By supporting Pakistan, China also ensures its foothold in the region, counteracting India’s rising prominence in global affairs. China, which maintains a close relationship with Pakistan, has been vocal in calling for restraint and dialogue. On the other hand, the United States has been steadily deepening its strategic partnership with India. The U.S. has sought to strengthen India’s position as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, along with joint military exercises and trade agreements, are a part of this broader strategy. Although the United States has called for both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint, its growing ties with India indicate a vested interest in maintaining stability in the region – and perhaps a preference for India’s rise as a regional power. For Pakistan, the renewed conflict presents an opportunity to further solidify its military alliances, especially with China. The ongoing discussions between Pakistani officials and their Chinese counterparts highlight this strategic alignment. Additionally, Pakistan may seek to leverage this situation to garner more international support, portraying itself as a victim of terrorism orchestrated from across the border. By focusing on the humanitarian impact of the violence and framing itself as a defender against external aggression, Pakistan could attract global attention and aid, bolstering its position in the international arena. India, while facing immediate security threats, may find that the heightened tensions work to its long-term advantage. The growing sense of national security concerns could rally domestic support for the government, especially in the face of what it portrays as cross-border terrorism. In the larger geopolitical context, India’s strengthened ties with the United States and Western nations could lead to increased military and economic support, further enhancing its regional and global standing. Additionally, India’s role as a stable democratic power in the region may be seen as increasingly important, as it serves as a counterweight to both China’s regional ambitions and Pakistan’s more unpredictable actions. In the grand scheme, it seems that the primary victims of this renewed conflict are the people living in both Pakistan and India. The civilian populations bear the brunt of military operations, displacement, and the psychological toll of living in a state of constant uncertainty. While political and military leaders may find ways to navigate and benefit from this crisis, the human cost remains immeasurable. The international community must continue to advocate for dialogue and diplomacy to ensure that the benefits of peace outweigh the short-term gains of conflict. Only through sustained efforts toward de-escalation and meaningful negotiations can South Asia avoid plunging into an even deeper cycle of violence, one that would ultimately harm everyone in the region. As tensions continue to rise along the LoC, the global community’s efforts to mediate and intervene may play a pivotal role in determining whether the conflict will escalate further or give way to a more peaceful resolution. If the countries involved can move beyond their entrenched positions and engage in meaningful dialogue, there may still be a chance to preserve the fragile peace that exists in this volatile region. However, if history is any guide, the road to reconciliation will be a long and challenging one. If there’s ever going to be lasting peace between Pakistan and India, it has to begin with mutual respect-and that includes staying out of each other’s internal affairs. For Pakistan, regions like Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) are deeply sensitive, and any hint of external interference, especially from India, only adds fuel to an already volatile situation. When one country feels that its internal struggles are being exploited or influenced from the outside, trust quickly erodes, and any hope for meaningful dialogue becomes harder to achieve. If India genuinely wants to see a peaceful and stable South Asia, it must acknowledge Pakistan’s sovereignty and avoid involvement-direct or indirect-in these regions. It’s about creating space for both nations to heal old wounds, rebuild confidence, and imagine a future where cooperation replaces suspicion. Without that basic respect, peace will always remain just out of reach. The writer is a PhD scholar and author of various books on international relations, criminology and gender studies. He can be reached at fastian. mentor @gmail.com