In Part I of the same title “Is the Ukraine War coming to an end? Published on April 14, 2025, in Daily Times, I argued that “several things have happened for the first time in the Russia- Ukraine war, and therefore, it can be termed as a game changer in 21st-century warfare. From information warfare to cyber warfare, economic warfare to psychological warfare, and drone warfare to land warfare, perhaps all relevant domains of hybrid warfare have been employed from both sides: kinetic to non-kinetic with substantial results. Though initially it was termed a TikTok war, it can now be referred to as a war of attrition.”
Another new thing about this ongoing war is that Europe stands divided on whether or not the war will continue. Perhaps because the US’s stance has considerably changed since the arrival of President Trump in the White House on January 20, 2025. Trump had also promised in his election campaign that he would make serious efforts to stop the Russia-Ukraine war as soon as he won his non-consecutive second term as the president of the US. He has since then been trying hard to bring all stakeholders to agree on a 30-day ceasefire to begin with for a lasting peace between the two neighbours in an unnecessary war (in Trump’s perspective). Trump has stated this before, also, that if he were the president in 2022, this war would not have started.
At this stage, Russia has doubled its war effort to gain maximum Ukrainian territory alongside its lost territory in the Kursk region. President Putin fully understands that the situation is in his favour, the European states stand divided, and the US is not supporting the Ukrainian war effort as it has in the last three years. For Putin, it is a win-win situation. However, the net loser at this stage is the Ukrainian President Zelensky, who feels betrayed by the US and some European leaders. Moreover, Putin has already declared that he has no intention to vacate the four eastern and southern regions that Russia has already taken over, including Donetsk Oblast, a Part of Donbas and a key industrial region; Luhansk Oblast, also part of Donbas; Zaporizhzhia Oblast; and Kherson Oblast. Perhaps because Zaporizhzhia Oblast is strategically significant for access to the Sea of Azov and Crimea, it also houses the famous Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which remains the largest in Europe. Likewise, the Kherson Oblast provides access to Crimea and the Dnipro River.
Ukraine’s best outcome will be to safeguard its areas rich in rare earth minerals, either through direct talks with Russia or by signing a deal with the US.
Interestingly, the US is prepared to accept most of Russia’s conditions for a short-term ceasefire, followed by a long-term peace plan, including holding on to the four occupied regions mentioned above. This condition will hurt Ukraine the most because it directly impinges upon its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
There is no denying that the US is making serious efforts to bring this war to an end, and President Trump is willing to go an extra mile to accept President Putin’s demands for the purpose, even at the cost of some of its European allies. President Putin also appears willing to end the war, and perhaps for this purpose, on February 19, 2025, he declared a temporary ceasefire for the Easter period. However, there were claims by the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy that Russians were still attacking during this period.
With Europe divided, Putin stands a good chance of dictating the ceasefire terms. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has painted at least two scenarios: the war can end by late 2025 or continue in 2026 and cause severe economic challenges for the region.
With a clear victory insight, the Russian war effort has increased in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions to gain maximum territory before a final ceasefire line is agreed upon. In my opinion, the Russian military will not slow down in its effort to slice the Ukrainian territory because it can see that the country is getting the same amount of arms and ammunition that it was getting before. Therefore, it is the right time to penetrate deep into areas rich in mineral resources and invaluable to the US. For weeks, the US has insisted that Zelensky sign the rare earth mineral deals. Still, he is reluctant to do that without sufficient security guarantees from the US against any future Russian aggression.
In the meantime, Russia continues its march in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. The Donbas region is rich in lithium, titanium, and germanium, crucial for high-tech industries, including electronics, renewable energy, and defense technologies. The Donbas region reportedly has over $10 trillion in mineral resources.. Russia has already gained control of “approximately 70% of Ukraine’s mineral resources, with the majority located in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.”
In my opinion, though we are making a serious effort, we will not stop until the Russians have gained sufficient control over the Ukrainian areas rich in rare earth minerals so that if these have to be offered to the US on its demand for the ceasefire, this is being done by Russia and not by Ukraine. In such a scenario, Ukraine will significantly lose its economic leverage, which it had until now.
Even now, Ukraine’s best outcome will be to safeguard its areas rich in rare earth minerals, either through direct talks with Russia or by signing a deal with the US. Perhaps Zelensky’s time is running out because there are calls for holding the already delayed elections in the country, and there is a high probability that he will lose the presidency for apparent reasons.
The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”