Donald Trump is back in the saddle and well poised to initiate his declared policies with a core focus on America first, like during his first stint in power. The executive orders issued by him soon after his inauguration amply indicate that it is going to be an era of great surprises in American politics.
His decision to pull out of WHO and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change leaves no doubt about his commitment to pursue policies that he considers for the benefit of the USA rather than caring for global cooperation. It can be safely inferred that his emphasis will be more on bilateralism rather than multilateralism.
This is bound to send ripples across the world. On the domestic front, he wants to completely erase the traces of the policies pursued by the Biden administration as is evident from his setting aside its 80 executive orders about social equity and public health.
Some of the European allies of the USA feel concerned about Trump’s increased focus on internal realignment at the expense of global leadership. The trajectory exhibited by his administration raises serious questions about the future of democracy, international cooperation and global balance of power.
Pakistan, as a state, is capable of stalling any foreign pressure concerning internal politics.
Under Trump, the world might have to endure an aggressive diplomacy by the USA. Trump has already indicated to pursue an expansionist foreign policy. His desire to annex Canada as the 51st state of the USA, the possible acquisition of Panama Canal and Greenland and the pledge to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America amply testifies to his aggressive mindset that does not look beyond American interests as perceived by him.
His chosen foreign secretary Marco Rubio is a known hawk when it comes to facing China and Russia. He believes in using sanctions and maintaining military readiness. The new national security adviser Mike Waltz is a firm believer in force projection and deterrence to counter emerging threats. The incumbent director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard who will be heading all intelligence agencies in the USA is also a staunch advocate of projecting American power throughout the world. These three appointees make a deadly combination with Trump in pursuing an aggressive foreign policy.
Last time immediately after assuming charge of the office of US President Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership which envisaged the largest free-trade area at the global level and also took decisive steps to reduce the financial burden on the US for providing security in different regions of the world, particularly asking NATO countries to evenly share the financial burden of keeping alive the cold-war arrangement. Similarly, South Korea was asked to make due contribution towards maintaining thousands of US troops on its soil, failing which it might be left to its own against its militarily much stronger North Korea. The Gulf states were also pressurized to enhance their arms purchases in return for Washington continuing to provide a security umbrella to them.
He spurned the WTO obligations and rendered it almost irrelevant. He indulged in trade war with European allies as well as China in addition to putting curbs on immigration into the US and even built a wall on the border with Mexico.
If history is any guide and in the backdrop of election pledges and statements that Trump has made it is not hard to infer that his second stint will not be much different from the previous one. He has pledged to stop illegal immigration and wars as well as giving top priority to resolving the economic woes of the American people. Trade war with allies and foes including China will be revived with the same intensity where he had left them.
It is due to fear of Trump’s relapse into his US-centric trade policies that the European countries do not feel excited about his return. He might also pursue the same policy. Stopping war in Ukraine will indeed be a big challenge for him as promised by him. Russia will probably not agree on anything less than a credible guarantee of an end to NATO’s eastward expansion including turning down the request of Ukraine for membership of NATO. For Trump, it will be very difficult to provide that guarantee against the wishes of EU countries.
In the Middle though he has been able to clinch the elusive ceasefire but like all Presidents will continue to justify the war crimes of Israel. There will be no material change in his stance towards Iran though he may not support the idea of war between her and Israel. India will continue to be supported as a strategic partner instead of Pakistan for her role in the ‘Contain China’ policy of the US.
In the context of commitment to bilateralism and his desire to rectify deficiencies in the implementation of the Doha Accord Trump would need Pakistan’s help which would suit the latter in regards to the security situation and dealing with terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. Therefore Trump will not view Pak-US relations from the Indian or Chinese perspective. Trump has a knack for making deals needing corresponding decision-makers. In the case of Pakistan military leadership provides an ideal partner.
A lot is being said and written about how the victory of Trump will affect Pak-US relations and whether he will put pressure on Pakistan to release Imran Khan or not as expected by the followers of PTI. Those who think in those terms need to be reminded that Trump’s relations with Imran Khan were never personal. He wanted to pull out of Afghanistan and sought help from him as Prime Minister of Pakistan for dialogue with the Taliban. He repaid by inviting him to visit Washington and publicly praising him for his help. But once his mission was accomplished Trump turned his back on Pakistan. State relations are not conducted the way the PTI leaders are anticipating.
If despite the foregoing realities, Imran Khan wants to act as a political stick against Pakistan’s interests in the hands of the USA, that is his call. Pakistan, as a state, is capable of stalling any foreign pressure concerning internal politics. Therefore, Imran Khan is better advised to refrain from inviting foreign interference in internal issues of Pakistan which descend into the realm of anti-state acts. Things are not going to move in the direction that he desires. People do not endorse his brand of politics any more. Pursuing this path would further damage his politics.
The writer is a former diplomat and freelance columnist.