It appears that the new Trump administration may soften its policies about nuclear non-proliferation because of its tilt towards “restraint” policies. In parallel, an extreme version of such school of thought maintains that the U.S. is required to withdraw extended nuclear deterrence guarantees to its allies and partners and permit them to develop their own independent nuclear weapons programs. In their view nuclear proliferation is an inevitability.
In its final days, the Biden administration-imposed sanctions on Pakistan’s national entities and its affiliated companies relating to long range ballistic missile programs. As on Thursday December 19, Pakistan has criticized the new sanctions imposed by the United States government. The restrictions are imposed on its long-range ballistic missile program. These sanctions are announced by the U.S. State Department spokesperson on Wednesday on the social media platform X, on which he said that these measures have been taken because of the executive order the non-proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. The sanctions imposed on National Defence Complex and three other entities. The foreign ministry of Pakistan has condemned the sanctions as biased. The ministry said in a statement that Pakistan’s defence resources are important for Pakistan’s sovereignty and maintaining the peace in the South Asia region as these policies would have hazardous implications for the strategic stability for the whole region.
Furthermore, Pakistan has been capable of maintaining a strong missile program since decades and have also maintained and developed nuclear warheads. It is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which is an informal political understanding among thirty-five states for the limiting of nuclear weapons and missiles and other related technologies. The MTCR mission is to control the weapons of mass destruction by limiting exports of materials and other technologies that take part in the delivery systems for the weapons of mass destructions.
Pakistan has been capable of maintaining a strong missile program for decades and has also maintained and developed nuclear warheads.
Even if Pakistan is not a member of MTCR, it follows its guidelines as Pakistan has not developed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), as their range is more than 5000 kilometres, and the focus of Pakistan’s missiles program is to provide deterrence against India.
In Pakistan’s collection of missile, Shaheen-III is the longest range missile and its range is 2,750km. That can transfer both nuclear warheads and conventional weapons. These facts show that Pakistan’s missiles are designed to provide deterrence against India and this policy of Pakistan is transparent.
But the US tensions about Pakistan’s missile programme is because it is concerned about the Pakistan’s possible alliance with China. These concerns are not new as during the President Obama’s second term, the US administrators have been calling on Pakistan to limit its expansion of its ballistic missiles outside India’s territorial limits.
As previously in September 2024, the US government has targeted multiple Chinese companies and a Pakistan company with sanctions for supplying material for the development of Pakistan’s long range ballistic missile program. According to these sanctions, the US based properties of those named was frozen and doing business with them was also banned. While commenting on the latest sanctions, deputy national security adviser Jon Finer has blamed Pakistan for the development of long-range ballistic missile, which could strike as far as the United States. The Pakistan foreign Office said in a statement that the purpose of its ballistic missile programme is defensive in nature and is to preserve stability and peace in the region of South Asia. The FO statement has condemned the sanctions against the private entities and said that these are mere blames without any evidence.
In parallel, scholars and experts argue that the upcoming Trump administration may significantly shift the U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS), and these changes could have extremely affected the U.S. allies and adversaries alike. Moreover, Biden administration is adhering to grand strategy based on “primacy” and nuclear non-proliferation is an important pillar of such policy. Under this policy, the U.S. has prevented even its closes allies from developing independent nuclear weapons programs. However, new Trump administration tilt toward restraints policies is likely to affect existing US nuclear non-proliferation policies. Proponents of these policies criticize current U.S. security policies and advocate for a shift in existing U.S. security framework. Meanwhile, Biden administration is its final days is trying to resuscitate traditional United States policies.
The writer is associated with the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad. She can be reached at [email protected]