Last week-and again yesterday-the people of France had their say in an election, called by President Emanuel Macron, to instill confidence in his government. Confidence-many had thought these elections would overturn-but in turn, led to even more confusion on a national level, with left wing allies, gaining a huge popularity in the runoff election.
In the first round of elections, to the point of changes in the electorate, the National Rally (RN), or Marin Le Pen’s party saw major wins across the nation, which was perfectly coherent with exit polls and pre-election polls, showing the unpopularity of the policies Macron and the French Parliament had implemented over the course of the last 2 years. Now, it’s worth noting these were parliamentary elections, and President Macron plans to serve out the remainder of his term which is till 2027, but regardless, there is a serious conversation to be had about populism and the rise of the far-right in Europe.
Sunday’s runoff which agreeably features candidates who could not meet the 50% threshold in the first round, was telling about the shifts in voters’ minds, with Macron’s Party, the Ensemble Party, losing almost 76 seats in the French Assembly, which is the lower, and more powerful wing of the Parliament. The clear winner of the evening was the New Popular Front (NFP), gaining 188 seats and having the potential to steer coherence with Macron’s remaining tenure. Paris was strongly held by the Ensemble Party, whereas more rural areas tended to side with Le Pen’s Far Right Party. While Le Pen-far right activist and NR’s multi-election Presidential Contender-did gain certain popularity and resonate with voters, her leader Jordan Bardella wasn’t able to appeal to a large part.
Sunday’s runoff, which agreeably features candidates who could not meet the 50% threshold in the first round, was telling about the shifts in voters’ minds
And although this wasn’t a complete vote of confidence for left wing parties, it certainly gives them a break from the far right’s championing message of carrying on Italy and Hungary’s precedent of adopting conservatism. And since there were multiple candidates from multiple parties in the first round, the far left and the moderate wings curated the strategy of maintaining a single centrist candidate on a district ticket to take votes away from center leaning right-wingers who felt isolated by RN’s far right policies and mandate.
Something that was a huge player in all of this was voter turnout. 67% of registered voters turned out to vote in what they thought would be a very consequential election.
Amidst all this, French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal-France’s youngest PM in its history-vowed to hand in his resignation to the President, given the lack of support for him. Macron has rejected his resignation asking to serve on at Hotel Matignon for the sake of stability. But President Macron will eventually have to appoint a new Prime Minister, with the Parliament’s support. Typically, this is from the largest party in Parliament, which at the moment is the NFP-which itself consists of multiple parties. Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise party is likely to take on the PMship, dependent on how much support he musters from his fellow left-wing alliance parties, and the nod of the Ensemble. What is even more likely is that the Ensemble forms a coalition government with the left-wing NFP, and governs effectively until Macron is set to stand for re-election.
Analysts also speculate the formation of a system apart from a cohabitation government, essentially appointing non-political exerts in the cabinet as a temporary government which stands the confidence of carrying both Macron’s agenda and being successful in passing and adopting policies for the progress of France.
As for the far-right, it has been pushed into further chaos, as French Prosecutors, move to investigate Le Pen’s involvement in campaign finance frauds and how the RN party managed to set up a fake jobs scheme to benefit the party financially. They are also facing questions of how it had debt issues with a Russian Company, and the taking of a 9.4 Million Euro Loan from First Czech Russian Bank, back in her 2017 run for office. If found guilty, she could face up to 10 years in prison. Notably, her father, the founder of the party has also been included in the charges and could also very well be subject to financial embezzlement indictments. Also, notable, the fact that she has a very soft tone towards the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, a somewhat of a likening to what others in her party endorse-as a distancing from supplying and ‘participating actively’, in the War in Ukraine.
As Politico’s Hanna CokeLaere put it accurately, “Macron may have prevented a Le Pen victory, but nobody really won.”
The writer is a columnist and a linguistic activist.