The demise of President Ibrahim Raisi of Iran in a helicopter crash on 20 May is not only an unsettling tragedy for the Iranian nation but a great loss to the Muslim world. President Raisi was a bold, wise and able leader. While at the helm, he wisely reviewed his country’s relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; repositioning it on the wider political and strategic chessboard of the Middle East. He successfully withstood the hostility of the USA by deepening its strategic and economic ties with China and Russia and the emerging political and economic blocs of nations resistant to and weary of – the unjust and atrocious US policies.
His wise role in de-escalating the tension between Pakistan and Iran over the border security issues was of greater importance in the regional scenario. His follow-up state visit to Pakistan reflected the wisdom, farsightedness and good neighbourliness epitomized by him as a leader and statesman. Pakistan and Iran are like Siamese twins bounded together by a long common border, economic interdependence, historic political and strategic cooperation and spiritual links. Both countries also enjoy prominence in the Muslim world. Iran was the first country that recognized Pakistan no sooner than it emerged on the world map as an independent country. In the war of 1965, Iran provided strategic depth to Pakistan.
There were apprehensions that the sudden disappearance of President Raisi from the helm would create some unsettling political and economic instability in the country aggravating the regional security conditions particularly when Iran, in a way, was in a state of war with the vicious Jewish state. No doubt, this is an event of greater enormity portending possibly far-reaching consequences. The process of the mending relationship with Saudi Arabia is in progress and the security situation in Palestine and the surrounding countries is volatile. The entire region is sitting on a powder keg and a small spark can cause an explosion resulting in greater devastation in the Middle East and serving the purpose of the modern bloodthirsty Genghis Khan at the helm of Israel. He has to be reined in by his masters – particularly Joe Biden.
Having a greater security threat from the roguish Israel, the bordering countries of Lebanon, Jordan and Syria were looking at the tragic accident in Iran with trepidations. The matter of fact is that no Muslim country is safe from the madness of Netanyahu and his cohort Gallant. No country in the Muslim world risks the annoyance of the US and the Western world to stand as a bulwark against the expansionist designs of the Jewish state.
Pakistan and Iran are like Siamese twins bounded together by a long common border, economic interdependence, historic political and strategic cooperation and spiritual links.
Iran, breaking the atmosphere of fear, smashed the myth of the invincibility of Israel, though it never wanted to escalate the situation by causing heavy loss of lives and strategic assets, and spread the war into the entire region as Netanyahu wanted it. After the strategic response to Israel, the wise leadership of Iran – President Ibrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Abdullahian – made it clear that, so far as their country was concerned, the matter ended then and there. This transferred the world pressure for restraint on Israel.
Given the volatile security situation in the region, the apprehensions about any likely political and economic instability in Iran were genuine and justified but this analysis lacked insight into the architecture of governance in Iran. The Iranian nation is a homogeneous people barring the Kurds; the ruling clergy is not unpopular in the country; the Supreme Leader Council is a well-structured supporting and guiding institution sanctified by the religion and Constitution; the parliament and Judiciary function well. The foreign and security policies of the country enjoy the backing of the Supreme Leader Council. The Iranian theo-democracy with built-in checks and balances has stood the country in good stead helping it navigate from crisis to stability.
Iran since the revolution has weathered a crisis of great enormity. We may recall, that during the raging war between Iran and Iraq, President Rajaei and his Prime Minister Muhammad Jawad Bahoner were killed in an office explosion in August 1981. Iran lost no time in electing a new leader. This followed the martyrdom of the Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Muhammad Beheshti and prominent political figures in suicide bombings. The well-structured system helped the nation overcome the enormous leadership vacuum.
In modern times, the concept of Theo-democracy was propounded by Joseph Smith (1804-1844) for his Mormon Paradise. In his system, the ultimate sovereignty and authority rested with God as the lawgiver and was exercised by people by the principles of liberal democracy through a Supreme Council where issues would be debated until a consensus arrived.
However, in early Islamic history, the governance in the Medina State rested on the concept that the ultimate sovereignty and authority belonged to Allah, and the Caliphs exercised it as His Vice-regents through the Assembly of the Pious and Wise (Majlis-e-Shura). The system remained in practice during the Four Caliphates until it degenerated into a monarchy in 680 AD. Syed Maudoodi had propounded this system for Pakistan. He was a regular consultant in the framing of the constitution of Iran.
In the present crisis and leadership vacuum, the First Vice President Mr. Muhammad Mokhber was elevated to the Presidency as the Interim leader to be assisted by the Speaker of the Parliament and the Chief of the Security Forces to put in place necessary arrangements for the election of the new leader on 28 June, hardly 39 days away. A key diplomat, Ali Bagheri Kani who was effectively working as the Deputy of the diseased Foreign Minister, has been promoted as the Interim Foreign Minister.
There would be no big change in the legacy of President Ibrahim Raisi. His Foreign and Security policies had the backing of the Supreme Leader. He did not challenge the status quo or the core revolutionary values followed by the conservative leadership in the country. His foreign policy of ‘look to non-western countries’ would continue with no respite in Iran-US tension.
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books.