After months of speculation and delays over his plans about Afghanistan, President Donald Trump finally unveiled his strategy to win the war that has been going on for 16 years now. The US President was determined to focus on allowing US forces to target the Taliban and other terrorist groups wherever in Afghanistan or bordering areas with Pakistan. In the new policy towards Afghanistan, the Pentagon has been given authority to ramp up troop levels in Afghanistan by several thousand; perhaps the biggest military change Trump announced to relax US authorities to attack the Taliban and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan. The end-goal of Trump’s plan in Afghanistan is to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table through military infiltration so as to find a political solution to the Afghan war. The goal was the same as that of President Barack Obama, but Trump argued his plan has a key difference from that of his predecessor, and that is, no timelines on the withdrawal of US troops.
While announcing the new policy, President Trump accused Pakistan of ‘harbouring’ terrorists and threatened that the country would face serious consequences if ways not mended. Pakistan’s alleged role in providing a safe haven to the Haqqani Network has frequently been a thorn in the side of the US military. Trump threatened to cut off US aid to Pakistan to persuade them to help fight terrorism in Afghanistan. “We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists we are fighting, but that will have to change, and that will change immediately.” Trump on the other hand, praised India and rationalised how India could contribute to the Afghan war effort. He talked about one billion dollars in trade between India and the US and desired that India should help more on Afghanistan with economic assistance and development. When former president Barack Obama talked about the war in Afghanistan, he focused on bringing US troops home. Trump wants victory in Afghanistan.
President Trump’s speech was not impressive, and his rousing statements against terrorism and hoodwink to involve Pakistan was nothing but to cloak US strategic, military and political failures in Afghanistan. His plan amounted to a jumble of ideas that lacked detail, coherence and were often contradictory. He said that his ‘original instinct was to pull out’, but that he had been persuaded by the generals who dominate his national security team that a ‘hasty withdrawal would create a vacuum for terrorists, including ISIS and Al Qaeda’.
While talking big and constituting victory on war in Afghanistan, President Trump seemed a million miles away from his earlier doubts about foreign entanglements. There was no mention of collateral civilian casualties, which have recently gone up and angered local populations
Having spent years criticising America’s involvement in Afghanistan, Trump now tried to appear as saviour of US by inclination towards an open-ended commitment, but with no real ways to measure success and no hint of a timetable for withdrawal. With deployment of more forces against 8,400 in Afghanistan, Trump did not explain as to how a few thousand more troops could succeed when more than one hundred thousand troops deployed during the Obama administration did not.
While talking big and constituting victory on war in Afghanistan, President Trump seemed a million miles away from his earlier doubts about foreign entanglements. There was no mention of collateral civilian casualties, which have recently gone up and angered local populations. Whilst not mentioning Russia, China and Iran in the region, who all have an interest in Afghanistan, Trump took a tough tone on Pakistan alone, hinted to withhold some aid, accusing it of playing a double game, taking billions of dollars in aid from US while giving safe haven to the Taliban and other militants.
Sending more troops in Afghanistan for indefinite period, preferring India to Pakistan, dictating Pakistan to do more without recognising its sacrifices and dedicated efforts in war on terror will do no better for the US but risks continuing reliable ties with Pakistan. The President was obvious to make a case for maintaining US troops at current levels in Afghanistan to keep the government from being overrun by the Taliban and to offset Pakistan, China, Iran and Russia to enlarge their influence but did not give a time-frame. Strongly opposing the new US policy weighing on keeping the troops staying in Afghanistan for indefinite period, former Afghan President Hamid Karzai who remained faithful and firm supporter of the US during his presidency and even years later, argued that “the strategy excludes bringing peace and prosperity to Afghanistan and is focused on more war and rivalry in the region, the US must seek peace and stability in Afghanistan rather than extending conflict and bloodshed in the region”.
Whatever may come out of the new US policy on Afghanistan, but one thing is for sure that Pakistan today is prepared to absorb the impact of a more assertive US policy. Law and order situation in the country is far better than before and the country is more economically stable than a decade ago, and has managed to secure much of its border regions with Afghanistan despite withdrawal of most US combat forces. The recent rhetoric by US President will encourage Pakistan to review its foreign policy besides deepening ties with Russia and China in the region.
The Writer is PhD Political Science, Civil Servant based in Islamabad. He can be reached at [email protected]
Published in Daily Times, August 27th 2017.