South Asia witnessed a sharp turn in events after the announcement of the latest US Afghan Policy. Being circled by military minds and advisors, Trump revealed his Afghan policy without any change of action. Under the new plan, nearly 4000 US troops will enter Afghanistan and join the war against terrorism and particularly against Taliban and IS. The most problematic aspect of Trump’s strategy is of lambasting Pakistan for its ‘dual role’ and his invitation of India’s help for peace in the region. In his tirade against Pakistan, Trump reminded Pakistan of US strategic and economic generosity and asked it to eliminate Taliban safe havens or bite the bullet.
The policy has received mixed feedback, where Indian, Afghan and major US allies praised Trump for his bold stance but he was criticized by the Russia, China and Pakistan for his high handed approach. Although the plan may sound plausible on the ground, Afghanistan is witnessing bloodshed almost every day, and its strategic plans for the region will have serious after effects. The policy lacked the a basic understanding of the region and the diverging interest of multiple regional actors.
It has to be comprehended that, the Afghan conundrum has a broader regional context, which is missing in Trump’s Afghan policy. The main regional players in Afghanistan are Pakistan, India, Iran, China and Russia.
Pakistan shares a more than 22,000 Km long porous border with Afghanistan. And has to be strategically aligned if the war is going to be a success. Pakistan’s strategic stakes in Afghanistan are purely Indian orientated. Despite the claim that Pakistan’s policy of strategic depth is no longer in use, its policy toward Afghanistan is still contextualized within the frame work of strategic depth. It cannot let both its Eastern and Western borders be hostile. Thus, in view of Pakistan’s strategic anxiety, the US invitation to India in Afghanistan will witness new repercussions which can be disastrous for the region. Pakistan will never appreciate an Indian tuned government in Afghanistan. Therefore, the invitation to India will further alienate Pakistan and it will continue to gamble for an influential place in Afghanistan. Such Indo-Pak confrontation within Afghanistan would further harm Afghanistan.
The policy is strategically and politically flawed and does not envisage positive prospects for Afghanistan
Iran, another influential regional actor has been ignored. Iranian support for Taliban and other Shi’ite militant groups has been an open secret. Thus, Iran will also endeavour to pursue its interests. Similarly, China is another dominant regional player which previously tried via its quadrilateral group to initiate a peace process. However, it was not very successful. A peaceful Afghanistan is vital for China’s future economic and strategic initiatives. Moreover, China supports a a peaceful and powerful Afghanistan due to the nexus between Afghan militants and its own bunch of indigenous militant groups which are allegedly based in Afghanistan.
Russia, despite its past experience in Afghanistan, is now said to be supporting Taliban and according to the US, Russia is helping out Taliban with arm support. Russia will always endeavour to seek the pull out of international forces from Afghanistan, this scenario provides the US and Russia a rare opportunity to share the burden of Afghanistan and work out a joint strategy to make the environment feasible for the possible pull out of international forces.
With such an isolated plan, US has drawn new strategic borders within the region which will generate serious strategic confrontation within the region.
Another missing link is the platform for joint collaboration of regional and international forces to deal with the menace of IS. IS activity has picked up in Afghanistan and is an imminent danger not only for Afghanistan but for the whole region including Pakistan, India, Iran Russia and China. It would have been more beneficial if US chased the opportunity and in collaboration with regional players, maps out a strategy to wipe out IS from the region.
In addition to this, the socioeconomic aspect has always been neglected in Afghanistan. The appalling socioeconomic landscape in Afghanistan provides a breeding ground for terrorism and requires an urgent path of recourse . Poverty, hunger, illiteracy, corruption, social stagnation and inadequate health facilities are prominent features of today’s Afghanistan. The physical elimination of terrorist groups could provide quick relief but could not kill the possibility of the re-emergence of these groups. Furthermore, the policy does not promise any improvement oftheAfghan population. Other than military means the policy lacks the basic tools to identify major socioeconomic measures for improving Afghanistan.
It also fails to address the growing confrontation within the National coalition government. The emerging political divisions and revival of warlords have led to regression developments in Afghanistan.
Overall, the recent American policy toward Afghanistan has many missing links, without which the possibility of a long-term peace appears bleak. The policy is strategically and political flawed and does not envisage positive prospects for Afghanistan.
Hammal Kashani is a Graduate of International Relations from National Defense University (NDU) Islamabad, Pakistan. His interests are in Global and National Political affairs
Published in Daily Times, September 2nd 2017.