As the Election Commission of Pakistan is winding up the process of elections, the protests by PTI, GDA, JUI, Jamaat Islami and Balochistan nationalists against rigging are getting louder. It is gratifying that the two mainstream political parties, Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan People’s Party, have evolved a midnight consensus for power sharing in a coalition government in the centre. For all the obvious reasons, this would not usher in political peace and stability unless the reservations of the agitating political parties over the integrity and credibility of the election results are addressed satisfactorily in accordance with the electoral laws of the country.
What political scenario emerges from the current attempts at the formation of governments by the PPP and PMLN under pressure from the powers may be that the former would take the Presidency, a symbolic presence in the PMLN provincial government in Punjab and lead a coalition government in Balochistan. It would like to have a say in the choice of the governors of Punjab and KPK. However, this was the most sticking point between the two parties. The PTI would take over the province of KPK while sitting in the opposition in the centre and Punjab.
The road ahead is too bumpy and we need careful and expert hands on the steering.
The federal government would be too weak to address the monumental political and economic problems the country is faced with. It will have the issue of legitimacy too owing to the adverse coverage of the elections by the international media. All the major countries, rightly or wrongly, believe that the PTI was not given a level playing field in the lead-up to the general elections, and the outcome of the votes was massively tampered with to deny it an absolute majority even when young supporters broke all the barriers of fear and came out in droves to vote for Imran Khan. This negative impression would linger on overshadowing the coalition government unless the allegations of election rigging are set at rest through a credible process.
At this point in time, we don’t have a national leader. Though the PPP has shown a strong presence in Balochistan, it owes all this to the maverick tribal chiefs who had joined it in the run-up to the elections. As a political party, it has no public following in the province. Since the general elections of 2013, it has been reduced to the rural districts of Sindh. The urban constituencies of the province keep on changing hands. Yesterday, these constituencies were held by the PTI, and have returned to MQM-P in this electoral exercise. However, the PTI claims that the Karachiites had massively voted for it. Its claim is corroborated by Hafiz Naeem, the Provincial Ameer of Jamaat Islami, who has since relinquished his lonely provincial seat from Karachi in favour of the winning PTI candidate.
PMLN has been banished from Sindh and KPK. It has some presence in Balochistan owing to the influence of the candidates it had carefully chosen. The PTI put up a strong electoral show in the KPK and Punjab but has been wiped out from Sindh and Balochistan.
With this fragmented mandate received by the mainstream political parties, the federal government will have to play on a weak wicket to rein in the strong provincial administrations going awry in political and financial matters. The provinces do not see eye to eye with the federation on many problems including the NFC, distribution of PSDP, irrigation water, federal jobs and the control of the provincial subjects like healthcare, education, properties, lands, mineral resources etc. Similarly, there are differences in the irrigation water sharing from the Indus River system among all four provinces. This controversy is acute between Sindh and Punjab with the latter taking more water from the system than its due share as stipulated in the water accords of 1992.
What one could clearly foresee is that with the strong opposition of PTI in the centre and Punjab, the federal government will have the daunting task of making legislation or bold policy decisions for the revival of the economy. The country is in the grip of severe political polarization and economic crunch. It has to go to the IMF for a new financial support programme, and re-adjust its foreign policy in the fast-changing international and regional scenario. The road ahead is too bumpy and we need careful and expert hands on the steering.
Given the current status of our bilateral relations with our neighbouring countries, the US tilt to India and the lingering competition and conflict between the two superpowers, the endless atrocities against the Palestinians by Israel in the Gaza Strip, and the possibility of a wider conflict in the Middle East, the new government would have to make bold policy decisions to strike a balance in its relations with China and US and regain its importance in the Muslim bloc. Our foreign policy has been anchored in the past erroneous notion that Pakistan, by its geographical location, is too important to be ignored by the US-led Western bloc and other major powers. We harvested the dividends of this geographical importance in the Cold War era and later during the war in Afghanistan and the counterterrorism war.
Much water has passed under the bridge, and the political and strategic configurations at the international and regional levels have gone past the notion of the geographical importance of a country. China is our all-weather friend. China has always been displaying a deep understanding of our political, strategic and economic compulsions. It is locked in political, economic and strategic disputes with the US. However, both countries have thus far prevented their conflicts from metamorphosing into a Cold War. In all probability, there would be no pressure on countries like Pakistan to take sides. However, the IMF would keep an eye on our borrowings from China. The careful management of our relations with India, Iran and Afghanistan would be the most daunting task given the US strategic interests in the region.
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books.