On January 27, a day after diplomatic ties were restored between Pakistan and Iran in the wake of a missile exchange, certain gunmen killed nine and injured three Pakistani citizens inside Iran’s southeastern region of Sistan-Balochistan near the border with Pakistan. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Reportedly, the victims were labourers, who hailed from Punjab. Some of them used to work at an auto-repair workshop in Iran to earn their bread. Though no terrorist group has claimed responsibility, it is surmised that the incident is meant to undermine normalcy between the two neighbours.
Similarly, on January 29, Pakistan’s security forces thwarted three coordinated terror attacks in the Mach town, situated 70 km from Quetta. Reportedly, militants belonging to the proscribed Baluchistan Liberation Army used sophisticated weapons and rockets to launch the attack. The security forces neutralized the militants successfully.
Saboteurs might be thinking that it is high time they settled a score.
Presently, Pakistan’s attention is diverted more towards the political chessboard on which the forthcoming general elections on February 8 would make their impact. A new government would be formed and, with that, a new political order would be set. Perhaps, this is why Pakistan is experiencing terrorist activities on its fringes. Saboteurs might be thinking that it is high time they settled a score.
In its south-west, Pakistan is confronted with four elements. First, the local Baloch dissidents, are somehow involved in anti-state activities. They tend to thrive in the illusion that they would be able to carve out a new homeland from the area divided between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Second, the Iranian Baloch who have come from across the border and taken refuge to launch attacks on Iran. Third, the remnants of the once Quetta Shura, align with the fugitive Taliban who have made sanctuaries in Afghanistan. Fourth, the remnants of the Tehreke Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which have got shelter under the umbrella of the Afghan Taliban, who are running the government in Kabul. Of these four elements, two are actively pursuing their targets inside Pakistan. One is the TTP and the second is the Baloch militant groups.
On August 30, 2021, the departure of foreign forces from Afghanistan emboldened the resolve of the Afghan Taliban, who considered the event their diplomatic and military victory without any iota of help from Pakistan. The departing foreign forces left a huge ammunition cache behind, which is being used by the ruling Kabul regime to govern Afghanistan. Nevertheless, the left-over modern weaponry proved a bonanza for both the TTP and the Baloch fugitive groups, which are using the weapons and related ammunition against Pakistan.
Several times, the TTP has expressed its displeasure at the merger of the tribal areas into the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The TTP is also discontented with installing a barbed border along the Pak-Afghan border, the Durand Line. There is a strategic point in these stances. That is, in the past, the TTP was condemned for offering shelter to the al-Qaeda fugitives. The allegation spoiled the TTP’s prestige and made its members run for relevance and reverence. However, in the stances against the merger and the Durand line, the TTP found its strength restored. The TTP has become able to rally like-minded people around it. The stance is now a way to survive and sustain.
After the departure of foreign forces from Kabul in 2021, the Baloch militants also got a chance to get possession of modern combat ammunition and weapons from Kabul. Like the TTP, the Baloch militant groups also turned their weapons on Pakistan. Favourable for both the TTP and the Baloch militant groups is the vast rugged terrain which offers them protection and exhausts the pursuer.
Nevertheless, there lies a disagreement between the TTP and the Baloch militants. The latter claim to have an irredentist right over some parts of Afghanistan too. The claim keeps them away from the TTP working against Pakistan. Hence, on the one hand, both the TTP and the Baloch militant groups share a sense of animosity against Pakistan. On the other hand, however, the TTP-Baloch bonhomie is self-contradictory. This is where Pakistan utters a sigh of relief and enjoys itself a sense of respite offered by mutual differences existing between its adversaries.
Amid hostility enters India which is developing the Chabahar port of Iran to reach Central Asia through constructing a road network in Afghanistan. The more the western half of Pakistan remains restive, the more are the chances of the stoppage of the much-touted Pak-China Economic Corridor. The role of India to heighten and exploit the conflict cannot be written off. The more Pakistan remains embroiled in the happenings on the western border, the more India finds time to reinforce its grip on the affairs on Pakistan’s eastern border including the region called Kashmir.
Pertaining to the Pakistani labourers killed in Iran, one possibility is that they were killed to avenge the missile attacks on the hideouts of the Baloch militants in Iran. Another possibility could be that the Pakistani labourers were killed because they were perceived as spies working in the guise of labourers. So far, one thing is clear, the Baloch militants are upping the ante of war on Pakistan.
A different perspective is that Pakistan has lost an opportunity to engage the Baloch dissidents (which later on swelled the ranks of Baloch militants) through Dr Maharang Baloch, who recently staged a sit-in in front of the Islamabad Press Club. Organized by the Baloch Yakjehti Committee, she had led a 1,600 km long march from Turbat (Baluchistan) to Islamabad. She was accompanied by women and children to raise a voice for the missing Baloch.
The factor Pakistan is overlooking is that negotiations are better than wasting resources in a conflict. Islamabad should have offered her certain terms of negotiations to make her understand the position of the Center and to find a way out of the Baloch discontent amicably. Even now, it is not too late.
The writer is an analyst on national security and Counter-Terrorism. She tweets at @TA_Ranjha.