In a recent analysis conducted by Bloomberg Economics, Pakistan’s three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), emerged as the top performer in managing the nation’s economy over the past three decades.
The study compared economic performance using a misery index, an informal measure that combines inflation and unemployment rates.
The Bloomberg Economics Misery Index Results for Pakistan revealed that the PML-N scored 14.5 per cent, surpassing Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) with 16.1 per cent and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led by Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari at 17.2 per cent.
The analysis took an average of the index values over the years when each major political party held power since 1990.
Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N has ruled Pakistan four times over the past three decades, and his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif has also held office. The PPP, led by the Bhutto dynasty, has governed the country three times, while Imran Khan’s PTI had a four-year term that ended in April 2022 following a parliamentary no-confidence vote.
Despite the positive economic indicators for the PML-N, Imran Khan remains the most popular politician in Pakistan, boasting an approval rating of 57 per cent, according to a recent Gallup opinion poll. Sharif’s popularity has seen a notable increase, rising from 36 per cent to 52 per cent in the past six months.
Ankur Shukla of Bloomberg Economics, in the report, noted that the road ahead won’t be easy for any party winning the upcoming election. The challenges include the current high levels of inflation, which is close to 30 per cent, making the currency the worst performer in Asia last year.
Additionally, foreign exchange reserves have declined, forcing Pakistan to rely on a financial bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Under the IMF’s conditions, the new government will need to implement potentially unpopular policies such as withdrawing subsidies and raising taxes. Inflation remains a significant concern, and unemployment rates are also elevated. The IMF projects a 2 per cent growth in Pakistan’s economy for the current fiscal year, following a contraction in the previous year.
The analysis concludes that the upcoming elections will present challenges for any winning party, and the economic landscape demands careful policy considerations to navigate the ongoing financial difficulties facing the nation.